2024: The New Hampshire Files
Topic: 2024 Election Materials
New Hampshire, worth 4 electoral votes, has been designated a decisive state for the November election.
This entry will be constantly updated and serve as a home page for background information, data, research, analysis, articles, and other information relevant to the forthcoming presidential election in New Hampshire, likely to be between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Bookmark it to keep track of any updates.
Facts and Figures
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 4
Population (2020 Census): 1,377,529 (+61,059 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 1,425,000
Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
State House Majority: Republican
State Senate Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 2 Democrats
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 88.3%
Latino: 4.3%
Black: 1.5%
Other: 5.9%
Presidential History Since 1932
Times Republican: 12
Last: George W. Bush, 2000, +1.3%
Times Democrat: 11
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +7.4%
Party Registration Data
·     Statewide
2020 Election: D+1.3% (+14,663 Democrat registration lead)
6/28/2024: R+4.8% (+42,966 Republican registration lead)
Presidential Election Characteristics
Still the most Republican of all New England states, New Hampshire backed every GOP presidential nominee from 1948 through 1988 except for Barry Goldwater in 1964. Donald Trump lost it by 0.37%, or 2,736 votes, in 2016 after focusing on the impacts of the opioids crisis and targeting the state’s large non-college white working class vote, making New Hampshire the closest state in terms of vote margin that year.
New Hampshire is the only state George W. Bush won in 2000 that he failed to win in his 2004 reelection, and it is believed he lost it due to the advancement of the Iraq War and the negative impression it left on the voters of one of America’s most libertarian-minded states. Rockingham and Hillsborough Counties in the southeast made up 53.5% of the 2020 ballot count and are heavily impacted by migration from Massachusetts and the greater Boston area, creating a left-wing current.
The Granite State has not yet instituted Automatic Voter Registration, which opens a window of competition for Trump, who must figure out a way to combat same-day voter registration fraud that takes place from Maine, Vermont, and especially Massachusetts. If paired with Nevada, New Hampshire could make up for the loss of Arizona or Wisconsin in the event of a fraudulent outcome in either.
2024 Forecast
Crimson - likely to deliver larger Trump margin than 2020
Competitive - Trump loss in 2020, but with more than 30% of the vote
2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +7.4% (59,267 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +1.5% (11,376 votes in margin)
Video overview of New Hampshire’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Rockingham County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Literature
Captain K’s 2024 New Hampshire Republican Primary Forecast and Prediction