Wisconsin, worth 10 electoral votes, has been designated a decisive state for the November election.
This entry will be constantly updated and serve as a home page for background information, data, research, analysis, articles, and other information relevant to the forthcoming presidential election in Wisconsin, likely to be between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Bookmark it to keep track of any updates.
Facts and Figures
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 10
Population (2020 Census): 5,893,718 (+206,732 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 5,925,000
Partisanship
Governor Party: Democrat
State House Majority: Republican
State Senate Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 6 Republicans, 2 Democrats
U.S. Senate Delegation: 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 80.4%
Latino: 7.6%
Black: 6.4%
Other: 5.6%
Presidential History Since 1932
Times Republican: 9
Last: Donald Trump, 2016, +0.8%
Times Democrat: 14
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +0.6%
Presidential Election Characteristics
Prior to the New Deal, Wisconsin (the founding place of the Republican Party) was a diehard GOP presidential state. It became streaky after 1932 and prior to Donald Trump’s 2016 win, hadn’t backed a GOP presidential nominee since Reagan in 1984. Wisconsin’s 2020 election is considered one of the most corrupt in the nation from that year.
Since Trump’s populist realignment of the Upper Midwest, Democrat strength is almost exclusively isolated to core, urban Milwaukee County and the centrally located Dane County, which is home to the state capital, Madison, and the massive University of Wisconsin. The W-O-W (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) counties are traditional Republican strongholds, while most of outer Wisconsin is a populist working-class haven on a hard trend away from Democrats at the top of the ticket.
Unlike Pennsylvania and Michigan, Wisconsin does not have Automatic Voter Registration. Its key urban stronghold, Milwaukee County, has been steadily declining in population and voter roll size, and as such, provides an enhanced opportunity for GOP candidates to carry the statewide vote. Wisconsin also has a strong electoral correlation to Iowa, which is no longer viewed as a competitive state.
2024 Forecasts
Iowa Portends an Upper Midwest Blowout for Trump - 92 Years of History Dissected
Crimson - likely to deliver larger Trump margin than 2020
Republican - declining Trump margin in 2020; uncertain trajectory in 2024
Competitive - Trump loss in 2020, but with more than 30% of the vote
Democrat - Trump loss with less than 30% of the vote in 2020
2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +0.6% (20,682 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +7.8% (236,682 votes in margin)
Video overview of Wisconsin’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Milwaukee County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Dane County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Brown County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Waukesha County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Literature
The Wisconsin Elections Commission is the Fox Guarding the Henhouse
Three Airtight Charges Supporting the (Hopeful) Coming Exile of Wisconsin’s Wolfe