Empire Elections, Part I: The Big Problem of the Big Apple

Topic: Elections

In this brief, three-part series, I will demonstrate what a statewide Republican victory in New York would look like nearly four decades after Ronald Reagan was the last Republican to carry its electors.  Essentially, New York’s election picture is broken into two frames: The Big Apple versus Upstate (for the purpose of these articles, including parts of Southern New York and Long Island not typically referred to as “Upstate”).

The five boroughs of New York City are:

*Brooklyn (Kings County)

*Manhattan (New York)

*Bronx

*Staten Island (Richmond County)

*Queens

As Upstate New York has either stagnated in population growth, New York City has given almost exactly 35 percent of the total statewide vote in the past three elections.  Here are the results there since 2004:

2004

Bush 24.1%

Kerry 75.0% (+50.9%, +1,230,481)

2008

McCain 20.1%

Obama 79.3% (+59.2%, +1,549,372)

2012

Romney 17.8%

Obama 81.2% (+63.4%, +1,558,352)

2016

Trump 18.1%

Clinton 79.4% (+61.3%, 1,670,026)

2020

Trump 22.8%

Biden 76.4% (+53.6%, 1,630,077)

You can see clearly that Trump put a nearly 8-point rightward drift on the city with his 2020 performance, which will be picked apart here shortly.