Four Pathways to Save America

Topic: Elections

I have no doubt that Donald Trump was the rightful winner of the 2020 “election,” and have never left any doubt as to where I stood on that matter.  If you need reassurance, just look up what America’s chief propagandists have to say about yours truly.  I have even laid out, county by county, precisely how big I think the steal was, and what the most likely outcomes were given all available information.

Still, I take heat from our side from many who do not truly understand what I am trying to convey – that our elections are not trustworthy or reflective of the will of the electorate.  If I had full visibility into the inner workings of Los Angeles County for the past thirty years, then yes, perhaps California is much tighter than even my models suggest.  The same can be said for New York City, Seattle, Chicago, Minneapolis, or any other major metro that single-handedly determines statewide electoral outcomes.

I acknowledge this issue and tend to focus on the low-hanging fruit.  Sitting on an airplane, I’ve convinced more neighboring passengers about the easy 2020 states, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Arizona, than I can count.  It does me no good to harp on and on about California when it is an enemy-controlled state that will not be exposed to the light of truth until we obtain the strategic position to do so, and that can only be done by navigating available paths to victory.

Because I choose to exist and operate in reality, I set out to identify actionable plans that may lead to victory.  The path to victory in 2024 is extremely narrow.  Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan were accidental victories in 2016, at least in the eyes of Democrats.  Once the Trump-trending coalition of states (most Trump-won states from 2016) were identified, the enemy knew where to seat their people in 2018 to control the 2020 electoral vote distribution.  When Democrats take over a state, they do not tend to give it back, as evidenced by the eight states flipped by Bill Clinton in 1992 that have never come back to the Republican column once in three decades.

The Republican Party of George W. Bush pissed away Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico in his second term, and those states have never come back.  With those 34 electoral votes still under Republican control, the 2024 Trump path would be much easier, needing potentially just one more electoral vote, not 35 more.

Acknowledging 191 controlled “blue” electoral votes, many of which were within six points in a real 2020 election, Donald Trump must find 270 votes out of the remaining 347.  He has 176 all-but-guaranteed “red” electoral votes at his disposal, meaning he must then pick up 94 of the remaining 171.

Those 171 votes represent the “decisive” states that will determine the winner of the 2024 “election,” which is primed to be a cheat-fest that will probably make 2020 look like child’s play, especially now that a mail-in voting and ballot harvesting initiative has been launched by the Trump campaign.  59 of those votes come from states Trump won in 2020 despite substantial fraud in all three – they are Texas (40 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), and Alaska (3).  For those who question my sanity, consider:
*Texas was won by Trump by just 5.6% (my real margin is at least 14.0%), which is nearly identical to Trump’s winning margin in Georgia from 2016.

*North Carolina’s abused mail-in voting system resulted in a narrow 1.3% Trump win in 2020, despite my forecast based on substantial data predicting a Trump margin of 9.0%.

*Alaska was held for days, most likely because it was on reserve in case a three-vote state was needed to get Biden over 270, if the steals in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia failed.  Alaska has also moved to a mail-in heavy voting system, complete with Ranked-Choice Voting.

Identifying those three states is critical for not getting “Georgia’d” out of any those mission-critical 59 electoral votes.  Should Trump be robbed of either Texas or North Carolina, I would consider the Trump campaign irreparably crippled and lacking any path to victory.  Furthermore, even taking away Alaska’s three measly electoral votes keeps Trump under 270 in all four of the following scenarios I consider valid.

Simply put, Trump must carry Texas, North Carolina, and Alaska, in addition to what I consider the floor “guarantee” of 176 electoral votes.  That would get him to the base camp, what I call the “Core 235” (note: Nebraska is considering a bill to make its electoral votes winner-take-all, which would eliminate the possibility of its 2^nd Congressional District’s electoral vote going to the Democrat nominee in 2024 – that would make this the “Core 236”).

The Four Paths

Ranked in Order of Difficulty

1)    The Power Move

Core 235

Georgia 16

Pennsylvania 19

Total 270

Pros: This is the most direct path, which by default requires fewer things to go right.  Georgia and Pennsylvania were both lay-ups in real elections in 2020, and at minimum, Pennsylvania should still be trending right as evidenced by party registration and economic conditions bringing about further shifting of coalitions (working class voters becoming more Republican).  Georgia municipalities are also making headway at taking control of their own elections, and if we are lucky, may one day have influence over federal elections.

Cons: Georgia’s feckless “Republican” Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, is not only unaccountable for the 2020 catastrophe, but is doing all he can to shove Georgia into the electoral abyss completely by advocating for Ranked-Choice Voting.  Governor Brian Kemp’s establishment machinery actively works against, or at best sandbags, populist candidates in the state.  Metro Atlanta continues to grow at a rate far surpassing Georgia’s smaller counties, which are generally “maxed out” in their share and quantities of Republican votes.

Pennsylvania is under total Democrat control, and along with its political cousin, Michigan, has fallen under the curse of a manipulated election system in which Democrats have mastered the art of harvesting mail-in ballots and maximizing corrupt voter rolls that facilitate fraud.  Republican gains in nearly 90% of counties are met with steep Democrat “gains” from ballot harvesting and skimming GOP margins in large counties between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.  Notably, Michigan will not be won without Pennsylvania being won, as it has normally been to the left of Pennsylvania in modern political history and is equally under the Democrat iron fist at the executive level.

2)    Captured Pennsylvania and Michigan Scenario

Core 235

Georgia 16

Wisconsin 10

Arizona 11

Total 272

Pros: Arizona is ground zero for the entire election integrity crisis, given that the 2020 election hinged on the “call” of Arizona and the subsequent shutdown in vote counting that changed the trajectory of the entire election.  Thanks to the subsequent 2022 meltdown, in which the top four Republican candidates were shafted in broad daylight, the challenges to that election loom large to this day.  Thanks to this exposure, Arizona is most likely to go “boom” before any other 2020 contested state, especially if either the Arizona Supreme Court or United States Supreme Court decides to do their damn jobs.

Wisconsin was excruciatingly close and was flipped to Biden thanks to ballot harvesters capitalizing on the “indefinitely confined” voter category, unsupervised drop boxes (which are now illegal), and voter rolls stuffed with fraudulent entries.  Wisconsin is the third closest state in terms of margin of victory in votes from the certified results of 2020.

Cons: Democrats were swept into office in the fraudulent 2022 midterms in Arizona, and held their ground in Wisconsin, no matter how dubiously they did so.  With Maricopa and Pima Counties accounting for seven of every nine votes in Arizona, it is painfully easy for those controlling the levers of power to disenfranchise the smaller, far less powerful counties in the state and justify it using the media to push an increase in population and a McCain grudge.

3)    Captured Pennsylvania and Michigan Scenario No. 2

Core 235

Georgia 16

New Hampshire 4

Arizona 11 or Wisconsin 10

Nevada 6

Total 272/271

Pros: Nevada has been a Republican-trending state since 2012 and shows signs of being a Trump win by 8.8% in a real 2020 election scenario.  A major change in demographic voting (Latinos voting for America First) turns the Clark County voting landscape heavily in favor of President Trump.

Cons: This scenario requires more to go right than the previous scenario and requires more states to get Trump across the finish line.  New Hampshire is one of four states my model suggests trended left in 2020, though my gut thinks Trump probably won the state.  The Granite State is dominated by its southernmost counties, Hillsborough and Rockingham, and has been heavily manipulated by out-of-state populations, especially those from Massachusetts, committing fraud in a small state lacking the rural population to overwhelm the urban counties.

Nevada has institutionalized its fraud under a Democrat trifecta, and is green-lighted by its own laws to spend a week counting votes after they can measure Republican support in its rural, overwhelmingly “red” counties.  Team Trump’s newfound embrace of ballot harvesting will need to reach overdrive if even a glimmer of hope exists to capture Nevada’s six electors.

4)    Captured Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona Scenario (The Inside Straight)

Core 235

Georgia 16

New Hampshire 4

Wisconsin 10

Nevada 6

Total 271

Pros: Listed in previous scenarios.

Cons: Requires a lot to go “right,” including pulling in New Hampshire, not won by a Republican since 2000, and Nevada, not permitted to be won by a Republican since 2004.  This scenario is the “last resort,” if Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona are captured and cannot produce Republican electors in 2024.

Administrative Notes
*Texas, North Carolina, and Alaska must be won if Trump is to compete in the 2024 electoral college map

*Georgia is the most important “swing” state in 2024.  It is a “must win” that must be won in addition to the “Core 235,” as all available paths to victory require Trump to carry its 16 electors.

*Michigan is highly unlikely to be won without Pennsylvania also going to Trump.

*Minnesota will not be won unless Trump carries Wisconsin.

*New Mexico, Virginia, and the two statewide electors for Maine appear to be the extent of a national landslide for Trump, accompanying all swing states.

*All paths to victory barely reach the 270 threshold, highlighting precious little margin for error.

TOP TEN most important states for the 2024 Electoral College (in order of precedence)

1)    Texas (don’t get Georgia’d)

2)    North Carolina (don’t get Georgia’d)

3)    Alaska (don’t get Georgia’d)

4)    Georgia (must win in all victory scenarios)

5)    Pennsylvania (second state of the easiest pathway to victory)

6)    Wisconsin (present in three victory scenarios)

7)    Arizona (present in two victory scenarios)

8)    Nevada (key ingredient in two alternate victory scenarios)

9)    New Hampshire (key ingredient in two alternate victory scenarios)

10) Minnesota