Four Takeaways on President Trump's Pursuit of New Jersey

Topic: Elections

The Trump 2024 campaign team recently announced that the 45^th, and hopefully 47^th, President has New Jersey in his crosshairs for 2024.  The Garden State used to be a reliably Republican state, much more so than its bigger cousin, New York, but hasn’t produced GOP electors since 1988, when George H.W. Bush won the state comfortably (I do believe that while H. Ross Perot didn’t cost Bush the 1992 election at large, he did cost him New Jersey).  It has, however, been part of the vaunted “blue wall” since 1992, when the rest of the northeast went blue for good (with New Hampshire in 2000, and the return of Maine’s 2^nd Congressional District, being the lone exceptions).

Some are scratching their heads, undoubtedly.  After all, Trump “lost” New Jersey by 15.9% in the always truthful certified results, which is nearly two points to the left of the 2016 margin, which represented a modest pro-Trump trend from 2012, when Mitt Romney managed to bungle the job there worse than John McCain did, even though 43 states became more Republican in margin when Barack Obama was reelected.

I don’t have a deep personal history with the Garden State.  I’ve been there a few times, passed through it on several other occasions on the way from the D.C. Beltway area up to Noo Yawk or beyond it, to New England, but haven’t managed to speak at one single election integrity event there (that’s a hint, hint for anyone from there reading this piece).  My Dad was born there in 1943, in Somerville, but didn’t stick around for long.  New Jersey also boasts the indomitable Defender of the Republic who artfully navigates key social media battlefields others have a hard time gaining traction on to impact those sitting on the fence who are incapable of retrieving written information for themselves.  I continue to believe she plays one of the most crucial roles in the awakening, and she was very excited to hear the news about coming Trump campaign efforts in her state.  Another detail about New Jersey, which Defender will undoubtedly adore, is that Trump Plaza in Atlantic City played host to Wrestlemania IV and Wrestlemania V in 1988 and 1989 – with an early-forties Donald Trump proudly presiding.

Finally, New Jersey was site of one of the greatest drone photos ever taken:

While leading all of the 2020 contested states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada) this far out, and in most cases by large margins – why would President Trump potentially spread himself too thin by going after New Jersey?  Here are four key reasons:

I.               Going on Offense Changes the Game

The Republican Party is weak because they have no guts, including those who aren’t controlled opposition.  They are used to constantly playing defense, and the result is “Texas is Turning Blue” or “They’re Going After Arizona!”  My entire adulthood and involvement in politics has seen almost nothing other than Republicans trying not to lose, playing the political equivalent of a prevent defense, rather than going after Democrat-controlled areas.  That is why it was so refreshing to see President Trump not only pursue, but win, the Rust Belt in 2016.  People said he was crazy for even attempting it – the same people who crafted a plan to get George W. Bush reelected by the skin of his teeth in 2004, with a close win in Ohio being all that kept him employed.

Ironically, this is another reason why I knew President Trump would win again in 2020 – because he was expanding the battlefield into New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota, which he missed out on in 2016.  Had he not felt secure with his margins in the states he won in 2016, he certainly would have spent more time reinforcing the known winning hand rather than seeking to put the enemy on defense.  Having to run off to Minnesota, or New Jersey, to play defense means less money and campaign energy and time spent in the truly pivotal states.  It is a near guarantee that any other Republican nominee would put their eggs in just a few baskets, giving fewer options and pathways to victory.  There is also a psychological advantage gained in going after blue states that strikes fear in the hearts of those who would otherwise construct polling and propaganda to portray an anti-Trump landslide on the way.

II.             New Jersey is Trumpier than Portrayed

Tying to its history as a Republican stronghold when the GOP was competitive in the working-class states (1968-88 primarily), New Jersey boasts tons of non-college voters, both white and otherwise shaded.  My methodology strongly suggests more than a half-million fictitious Biden votes came from the Garden State in 2020, pushing the margin left, rather than to within 6 points, best case, a second consecutive pro-Trump trend putting the state on the path to 2020 battleground. Trump gained more than 280,000 votes from his 2016 performance in the state, only to see the superb, non-campaigning, five-decade political retread make Barack Obama look like a chump with his performance there.

Team Trump certainly has data and polling confirming my assessment, and in fact has seen my numbers on the state.  They would also be likely to see similar numbers in Virginia, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii if they were looking for them, and maybe even Illinois.  Of states Trump “lost” in 2020 that I still have as likely Biden states (not the six contested states), New Jersey is the sixth closest one, and its proximity to eastern Pennsylvania has double impact and comes with geographic convenience.

III.            New Jersey is Highly Unlikely to Flip

Understand what you’re reading here.  I have New Jersey organically within six points in 2020, and on the path to battleground status in 2024 – in a landslide, a certainty to go to Trump, who many registered Democrats have supported and will support again in New Jersey.  Also understand that as the engineered results stand, despite a massive gain in 2020, Trump still lost to Biden by 725,087 votes – or 178,742 more votes than he lost to Clinton by.

It's not that I think New Jersey couldn’t be won in a legitimate race.  It’s that New Jersey is among the most corrupted states in the nation, extending deep into its administration of elections.  The state implemented Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) in 2018, making its elections practically unwinnable, and contributing at least 300,000 additional voter registrations to the states already corrupted voter rolls than would have otherwise been likely:

2004-2008 change to voter roll: +345.7k

2008-12 change: +145.7k

20012-16 change: +322.0k

2016-20 change: +667.0k

Rig the registrations.  Mail them all ballots.  Share the data.  Harvest the ballots.  Spend weeks of “early voting” stuffing them in drop boxes.  Voila – perfection.

IV.           Trump is Probably Running a Feint

Given the points above, I believe the attempt at New Jersey is more of an effort to generate a groundswell of support for other candidates and to create a decoy rather than an expectation to take the state’s 14 electoral votes.  AVR has so badly flooded New Jersey’s voter rolls that taking away 300,000 Biden “votes” and giving them to Trump still has the Democrats ahead by more than 100,000, even before the new “registrants” have the chance to have their harvested ballots counted.

A sincere effort in New Jersey, however, will certainly make a dent not only there, but in the Big Apple, making a Trump popular vote win much more likely, which will provide a mandate of sorts in what will need to be a Polk-esque single term in office.  A strong enough Trump surge in New Jersey will pay dividends in Pennsylvania, which after Georgia (and all of Trump’s 2020 states being held), blazes the most direct path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Conclusion

You may not like everything you’ve read in this piece, especially the third point – but my job is to provide actionable intelligence.  Anything short of that gets people killed and fails the mission.  We are not going to out-harvest the ballot harvesting masters at their own games, which they dominate from their vantage points in Newark, Trenton, and other strategic points, or win deliberately manipulated races in which we already possess a severe disadvantage.  I do, however, believe there is a window to win a path to 270, though that is closing tightly and will require divine help and a legendary performance to pull off.  The good news is that both have happened in our national history, and we work daily to make that happen once again.

Author’s Note: Now that New Jersey is on the agenda as a state Team Trump will contest, the Election Fairness Institute could use your help mapping the state.  So far, only three counties there have been sponsored.  Read more about the Precinct Mapping Project here, and if you’d like to sponsor a county in New Jersey, email mapping@goefi.org.