Grading Criteria for 2024 Presidential Election Integrity Quality Rating

Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

I am introducing a new system, so it goes without saying this post is intended to provide a brief overview of what makes the new ratings scale tick. I have begun evaluating all states with regard to the 2024 presidential election in order to evaluate trends (real and not), identify areas of likely ballot trafficking and fraud, and create an actionable plan for election reform with data from three Trump elections now in the books.

To rack and stack these states appropriately, there must be a common ground by which I evaluate them. That’s why I created the 2024 Presidential - Election Integrity Quality Scale:

First, permit me to issue a disclaimer. Nearly everything I do in elections world is relative. It’s the style I prefer. If you ask me if Babe Ruth is the greatest ballplayer of all time, then I’ll break things down into eras rather than spanning all baseball history, which has seen the game break and remake itself on numerous occasions. The same can be said for presidents, too. I can’t reasonably compare Donald Trump with George Washington because they are centuries apart and inherited entirely different sets of problems to solve and their own unique places in American history.

So…all of my Election Integrity Quality Ratings will order these states relative to one another, and it will be primarily concerning the 2024 results, even though pre-existing conditions are considered in order to rate certain states that may not have played a major role in this year’s races. I will inevitably face hurt feelings when I don’t rate someone’s state as poorly as they would have liked or expected, or if I emphasize some criteria at the expense of other criteria. Remember – not everything can be the worst, and not everything can be the best, and I can’t fit more than five items in any top five list. I say this because I listed a top ten election integrity states priority list recently after the election and received replies of “but what about…” for every state that didn’t make the list. Our actions in tackling the elections crisis must be methodical from this point forward; therefore, I will make assessments like the following:

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Grade 1 – Lowest Concern

States Listed: 18

A state may receive Grade 1 – Lowest Concern if all the following criteria are met:

· No statistical or pattern-based indication of significant election manipulation in the 2024 presidential race or any notable down ballot races

· Does not have Automatic Voter Registration

· Does not have universal mail-in balloting

· Does not have Ranked Choice Voting

· Has Voter ID laws

· Not subject to lengthy ballot counting period

What it does not mean: Your state has no election concerns and you should stop working toward election reforms where needed, especially in large, key counties.

What it does mean: Your state is not crippled by any of the “Big 3” election administration demerits and appears to be largely left alone in the 2024 election, especially in the presidential race. Relative to the other states, it is of low concern, such as South Dakota.

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Grade 2 – Marginal Concern

States Listed: 17 + Washington, D.C.

A state may receive Grade 2 – Marginal Concern if any of the following criteria are met:

· No statistical or pattern-based indication of significant election manipulation in the 2024 presidential race or any notable down ballot races

· Has Automatic Voter Registration

· Has universal mail-in balloting

· Must not have Ranked Choice Voting

· Has notable election vulnerabilities specific to that state which may or may not have impacted the 2024 races

· Is among the largest electoral vote-holding states (more than 11 electoral votes), even if no statistical pattern of manipulation may be observed

What it does not mean: Your state had a dirty election in 2024.

What it does mean: Your state may have at least one of the “Big 3” election administration demerits, or none of them but stands as a key electoral state with many electoral votes/congressional districts – such as Texas or Florida.

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Grade 3 – Elevated Concern

States Listed: 10

A state may receive Grade 3 – Elevated Concern if any of the following criteria are met:

· Statistical or pattern-based indication of significant election manipulation in the 2024 presidential race or any notable down ballot races

· May have Automatic Voter Registration

· May have universal mail-in balloting

· May have Ranked Choice Voting

· May be a key battleground state

· No minimum electoral vote count required

· May have notable election vulnerabilities specific to that state which may or may not have impacted the 2024 races

· Features late-flipping races decided after excessive counting period

What it does not mean: Your state isn’t among the worst in America for election integrity. This is a relative exercise conducted to gage the quality of the 2024 election in each state given known election conditions.

What it does mean: Your state is a key electoral state in deciding the balance of power in the United States, or your state is uniquely crippled regarding running free and fair elections and in no way could have been expected to operate a free and fair election in 2024, even if no noticeable statistical anomalies are present in 2024.

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Grade 4 – Highest Concern

States Listed: 5

A state may receive Grade 4 – Highest Concern if any of the following criteria are met:

· State meets criteria for Grade 3 – Elevated Concern and is in the bottom 10 percent (five states) of all 2024 presidential races for Election Integrity Quality.

What it does not mean: Your state was stolen in the presidential race.

What it does mean: Your state was clearly manipulated to alter the outcome of the presidential race or impact down ballot races to the degree possible. It is likely characterized by all the worst demerits identified in the criteria listings for Grades 1 to 3, and stands out as one of the top five worst states for elections in 2024.

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Conclusion

It is essential that you understand this is a relative exercise. Rating a state lower than you thought it would be rated does not mean there is no election-related work to be done in the state, nor does it mean I think there are no 2024 concerns. The data from the three Trump elections is extremely valuable in that it allows me to see the impact of the 2020 Democrat high point, the recession in Democrat votes in 2024, and the relationship to their vote totals in various counties in the 2016 race. Pieced together, it presents an extremely valuable collage of data.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.