Introducing the Precinct Contrast Project

Topic: Projects

Last year, the Election Fairness Institute, which boasts yours truly on the Board of Directors, launched the highly successful Precinct Mapping Project, which mapped every precinct of every county in every single battleground state, plus several other states and hundreds of other counties, in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election. Many of my readers here contributed to that vast project, which went toward sustaining EFI operations backing many important election efforts and lawsuits, and paid contributors like our professional mapper. The end product appeared in the type of brilliance shown below (available in zoomable PDF) and pointed the way toward the most critical precincts from an election integrity perspective in any given county:

If the Precinct Mapping Project has any of its own demerits, one may be that the idea didn’t come along until late in the game, and most certainly too late to have had any value for the 2022 midterms. Since the 2024 election wrapped, I’ve been thinking about what sort of data is actionable, and the answer came to me live from Prescott, Arizona, when I presented 2024 election data and discernible trends to the Yavapai County Republican Party leadership. Since all my work takes data and analyzes it relative to other known data from previous elections, I showed shifting vote tallies by precinct and by party throughout the county from three presidential elections – 2016, 2020, and 2024. Here is the Democrat map depicting comparative performance of Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris in the county:

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Here is the Trump-Trump-Trump three-cycle map:

The respective legends of each map tell the tale with no need for an attached lengthy report to explain it. In the case of Yavapai County, it is evident the Democrats have all but died off in the rural outskirts of the county, as well as in and around the City of Cottonwood, which lies along the eastern border of the county. Trump’s vote gains have been even more intense over three cycles in the area immediately north of Prescott in the heart of the county. This sort of mapping project is highly useful in swing counties decided by narrow margins.

Party organizers and activists can use these maps for traditional registration and GOTV (get out the vote) efforts, as well as for investigative purposes for voter registration canvassing, particularly in states with a heavy reliance on vulnerable mail-in balloting procedures. Those using these maps can accurately identify growth capacities of either party based on an analysis of data from the past three presidential elections, which are the most predictive elections for forecasting and planning purposes.

If you would like to map your county, which includes maps for both parties under the same price, please contact mapping@goefi.org. We will give you our price for the county (or counties) you request, starting at a minimum of $200 (understand this project requires research to pull and organize the data, analyze it, and then map it). You will be directed to make your tax-deductible contributions here. As always, thank you for your support of EFI’s important work in the field of election integrity.

Thank you for your support of the Precinct Contrast Project.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.