June 2025 Voter Registration by Party Updates in Solid Blue States

In June 2025, we spot the emergence of two new battleground states made evident by changes in party registration PLUS shocking news about these 11 states as a whole.

Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this study, please see the March summary for battleground states.

This post covers voter registration changes in non-battleground states that Kamala Harris won in 2024 that track voter registration by party. They are California, Colorado, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island. Connecticut, reflective of the poor quality of state government there, has not updated its figures at all since the 2024 election and therefore is not included. New Hampshire is included in the monthly battlegrounds report. It is most likely the non-battleground registration posts will be updated quarterly.

From east to west…

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MAINE

• New England’s most corrupt state for elections hasn’t updated since February, but Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is holding strong for the next GOP nominee and will hopefully show positive momentum for taking its U.S. House seat.

• Maine’s at-large electoral votes are likely to elude GOP presidential nominees thanks to the Massachusetts-like electorate of the southern district (ME-1).

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MASSACHUSETTS

• Trump made nice gains in Massachusetts in 2024, and nearly flipped Bristol County (Harris +1.3%), which would have constituted the first GOP presidential county win in Massachusetts since 1988. Modest GOP shift present in Massachusetts since November.

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RHODE ISLAND

• Democrats have lost over 6% of their registration lead since the election, a positive sign that the white working-class continues to slip away from the Democrats.

• While I don’t have high hopes for Rhode Island’s statewide chances of becoming a MAGA stronghold, these changes bode well for similar voting demographics in Maine and New Hampshire.

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NEW YORK

• Slow and steady wins the race. New York voted more than 12 points right of its party registration index (D+25.1%) in 2024, and has drifted further right with voter roll maintenance. No updates since February, but if it mirrors New Jersey’s changes (likely), New York will show a nice move rightward at the next update. At this rate, we could be looking at a single-digits race in 2028.

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NEW JERSEY

• New Jersey is one to keep an eye on, with a large minority voting demographic that swung hard to the right for Trump in 2024, and an already large white working-class population.

• Democrats have already lost almost 10% of their registration lead since November. If this trend continues, it is likely New Jersey will be within 3 points with J.D. Vance as the nominee in 2028. Accelerating this means pursuing gains in northeastern New Jersey, such as those that flipped Passaic County last fall.

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DELAWARE

• Voter roll maintenance has, not surprisingly, brought strong change for the GOP in a state that usually votes right of its voter registration index.

• Long-term gains in Delaware will require the Republican Party to get its hands dirty in New Castle County (urban Wilmington), which it shows little historical aptitude for doing.

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MARYLAND

• Slight rightward movement in a state dominated by urban minority voting and the government working class in the southern part of the state.

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  COLORADO