June 2025 Voter Registration by Party Updates in Solid Red States
Monitoring the landscape of political realignment within 11 states the President carried comfortably
Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this study, please see the March summary for battleground states.
This post covers voter registration changes in non-battleground states that Donald Trump won in 2024 that track voter registration by party. They are Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. All other states Trump won are included in the monthly battlegrounds report. It is most likely the non-battleground registration posts will be updated quarterly.
From east to west…
WEST VIRGINIA
Former legacy Democrat state is now catching up with rebranding its registration index. That will continue for a long time, but the voting margins statewide are probably close to maxed out, with Trump having won 70% in 2024. Democrat statewide wins are a thing of the past here.
KENTUCKY
One of the Vice President’s former home states is realigning similarly to West Virginia and shaking off an ancestral Democrat voter registration disposition.
Unlike West Virginia, Kentucky still has a Democrat governor; however, those days are numbered as Republicans have gained another 25,180 net registrations since November.
LOUISIANA
Likely to be a full-blown GOP state by party registration long before the 2028 presidential election; Democrats have lost over 43% of the dwindling registration edge they had in November 2024.
OKLAHOMA
Democrats are busy trying to take over Oklahoma County, but outside of that, have very little sway in statewide politics, as voter registration continues to redden.
KANSAS
Republicans lost the handle on Johnson County due to urbanization, corruption, and a rapid population increase, but now the heavily Latino portions of western Kansas are realigning and pushing the state further right.
NEBRASKA
While this appears to be a modest nudge rightward, the changes are heavy in Douglas County (metro Omaha), with the GOP having made up +1,873 registrations there. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, worth one electoral vote, is made up of all of Douglas and Saunders Counties and part of Sarpy County, was carried by Kamala Harris by just 14,636 ballots (4.6%), and is going to be down to the wire for J.D. Vance in 2028 if he wants it (or even needs it).
SOUTH DAKOTA
Not only does South Dakota have the South Dakota Canvassing Group, one of the best election integrity outfits in America, it has the Black Hills, which I want to live in someday.
South Dakota also has a widening GOP voter registration edge, suggesting it’s too cold for blue state refugees to pick over warmer red states (and good news for South Dakotans).
WYOMING
This is the only state in the entire grouping, including battlegrounds and blue states, that has anything other than a red arrow bridging November 2024 to June 2025. While it technically shows a Democrat shift in registration as a percentage (down from R+67.0% to R+65.6%), the GOP expanded the net registrations lead by 8,774 - so I colored it purple instead of blue.
Numbers are one thing, and the skill to interpret them is another; this is a mathematical technicality, as the voter roll now has enough non-partisans in it to slightly reduce the GOP voter registration edge when expressed as a percentage. Notably, Trump had 72.3% of the vote in Wyoming, so it is likely the presidential margins are maxed out (not likely to go higher). Wyoming is redder than Brooklyn was blue last fall.
UTAH
For all the hand wringing about Utah fielding awful Republicans like Mitt Romney, the state has reddened by 2,302 registrations net since November, slight Democrat gain last month due to roll maintenance notwithstanding.
Utah now votes well to the left of its registration advantage, making it clear that one must be a registered Republican to get appointed or elected to most offices (hence the RINO bent).
Utah’s biggest problem is that it is the only reliably Republican state to practice Universal Mail-In Voting, although that is slated to end in coming years.
IDAHO
For everyone looking for where to wait out the end of the world, you should pick Idaho. You’d think a state filling up with transplants from California and the Pacific Northwest would start to slow down its red surge, right? Wrong. Idaho laughed at its R+46.4% from November and is now knocking on the door of an even R+50%, with 11,067 registrations moved net in 7 months.
Regardless of the statewide progress, Idahoans should monitor Ada County (metro Boise) carefully so Democrats can’t gain a beachhead for warping the overall political equation throughout Idaho.
ALASKA
Alaska, being so disconnected from the Lower 48 and much of the discord here, has a weird vibe when it comes to partisanship, but nevertheless, has widened its GOP lead by 1,260 net since the election.
Yes, the state GOP is still going to play games in 2028 if Lisa Murkowski decides to run for reelection, and she has a puncher’s chance of hanging on because Alaska is expanding mail-in voting and operates the reckless system of Ranked Choice Voting (RCV). RCV held on by 743 ballots last fall after many weeks of counting ballots for the repeal attempt.
CONCLUSION
In all 11 solid red states providing updated party registration data in this report, Democrats aren’t gaining in registrations in a single one. I repeat, not one single solid red state registering by party shows Democrat gains.
For those keeping score at home, since the 2024 election, Republicans are gaining in:
All 11 solid blue states tracking voter registration by party (Connecticut excluded for lack of updates)
All 11 solid red states tracking voter registration by party
All 7 battleground states tracking voter registration by party
As a reminder, quit reading the polls and share Captain K’s Corner with people who need to read the truth.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Very helpful information for this Californian considering fleeing the insanity of this state. Good to hear Idaho isn't turning blue with all of the left coasters moving in. Thank you.
From a Captain to a Captain, thank you for your outstanding contributions and attitude in our struggle back toward the America we can be. Your father would be immensely proud.