June 2025 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds
My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.
Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this study, please see the March summary.
Last month’s report can be found here.
FLORIDA
Net shift since May: R+25,203
Voter rolls still under maintenance, but GOP lead expands by 25,203 registrations.
Miami-Dade County flips to GOP registration advantage, providing an urban blueprint to be replicated nationally.
Duval bellwether continues to progress, suggesting J.D. Vance would win Georgia, which mirrors Duval, in an election held today.
Florida is no longer competitive statewide.
IOWA
Net shift since May: R+985
Continued Republican gains suggest Minnesota and Wisconsin are likewise reddening. Neither of those register voters by party to confirm directly, but Iowa is the mirror state for both.
Iowa is no longer competitive statewide.
PENNSYLVANIA
Net shift since May: D+682
Municipal primaries, the reason for the slight Democrat recovery after constant losses, have now ended.
Republicans returned to making gains at the end of the month, and it is likely they’ll continue now that primaries are over.
J.D. Vance would win Pennsylvania in an election held today.
NORTH CAROLINA
Net shift since May: R+2,541
The gradual extinction of the Democrat voter registration advantage continues, and may accelerate now that voter roll corruption in North Carolina is in the news.
North Carolina looms large for the U.S. Senate next fall, but should be secure for future GOP presidential nominees.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Does not update monthly. No change since last report.
ARIZONA
Net shift since May: R+463
With updates constantly available from Maricopa and Pima Counties, numbers are looking good for getting rid of Katie Hobbs next fall (plus the rest of her Democrat statewide colleagues).
An update of the 13 remaining counties would show a much sharper shift toward Republicans, perhaps closer to a 350,000 lead statewide.
Arizona would be won by J.D. Vance in an election held today by a likely margin (5-9.9%).
NEVADA
Net shift since May: D+580
The parties continue to trade off registration leads, with Democrats taking a tiny lead into June.
Clark County was nearly unchanged, while Washoe County moved slightly right. This shift left appears to be entirely owed to Nye County, which had a massive exodus of Republicans to Non-Partisan last month. This is either a clerical error or a localized incident that could likely be confirmed by someone familiar with county politics. Either way, Nevada would have shifted Republican if not for Nye County’s May changes.
J.D. Vance would win Nevada in an election held today.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
What does “Iowa is no longer competitive statewide” mean?