Know Your 2024 Electoral College: South Carolina (9 Electoral Votes)

Topic: Elections

Basic Election Facts

2024 Electoral Votes: 9

Population (2020 Census): 5,118,425 (+493,061 since 2010)

Likely Population at 2024 Election: 5,450,000

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Partisanship

Governor Party: Republican

State House Majority: Republican

State Senate Majority: Republican

U.S. House Delegation: 6 Republicans, 1 Democrat

U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans

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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)

White, not Hispanic: 62.1%

Black: 24.8%

Latino, any race: 6.9%

Other: 6.2%

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Presidential History since 1932

Times Republican: 14

Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +11.7%

Times Democrat: 8

Last: Jimmy Carter, 1976, +13.0%

Times Other: 1

Last: Strom Thurmond, 1948, +47.8%

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Presidential Election Characteristics

·      South Carolina emancipated from the Democrat plantation in 1964, going back only for Jimmy Carter, a Georgia native, in 1976.  South Carolina is on an 11-election GOP presidential streak, and 14 of the last 15.

·      Only one race (2008) has finished within 10 points since 2000.

·      Democrats are completely outgunned statewide.  Just three counties produced a margin of more than 10,000 votes for Biden in 2020 (Richland, Charleston, and Orangeburg).  Even with substantial manipulation, six counties produced margins greater than 25,000 for Trump.

·      Democrat strongholds will dwindle as more black voters defect from the party.

2020 Review

Official: Donald Trump +11.7% (293,562 votes)

Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +23.5% (533,672)

I don’t believe there was an attempt to steal South Carolina, but as with most Republican states, substantial manipulation pushed the margin to the left of where it was in 2016, when the state trended 3.8% in Trump’s direction.  Biden finished just 63,848 votes behind Trump’s 2016 blowout victory total, even though Trump’s gain of 229,714 votes gained in one cycle represents an all-time GOP presidential record.

My analytical method spots at least 23,030 fraudulent votes in Greenville, Horry, and Charleston Counties, the latter of which I believe Trump narrowly carried. 

2024 Preview

Prediction: Donald Trump >+16% official, >+25% clean

Trump will win South Carolina with ease, and I believe the state will move back to the right in margin because 2020’s vote totals are simply too gaudy to be replicated, and because Trump is likely to do substantially better with the black vote, which is more loyal to Democrats in the south than anywhere else.

Trump is a solid bet to reach 1.6 million votes.  Look for the Democrat candidate (Biden for now) to be around 1.1 million certified votes, although I think the Democrats would be well shy of 1.0 million without the extra padding, especially with a much weaker share of the black vote.

Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!