Michigan - Final 2024 Prediction

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

November 4, 2024

---

My sixth final prediction for the eight battleground states of 2024 is for Michigan.

The good news about Michigan is that if he’s carrying Michigan, he’s almost certainly already carried Pennsylvania, which is less corrupt and votes to the right of the Great Lakes State; therefore, I’m not looking for Michigan to be the one that puts him over the top.  The bad news is that Michigan is easily the most corrupt of all eight battleground states and makes Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia look like poster children of free and fair elections.  More than 83% of Michigan’s total population is registered to vote, and the issue with that is that only 77% of any state’s population is over the age 18 and therefore old enough to vote.  Hundreds of thousands of bad registrations pollute the state’s rolls and are ignored by the corrupt trio of women running that state.

---

Party Registration

Michigan does not register voters by party.  For more on the best comparison I could infer for party registration, please read my analysis of Pennsylvania as registration indicator for Michigan.  The two states are political cousins and have shifted together in every election since 1948.

---

What Harris Must Do to Win

Harris has a major home field advantage in Michigan, especially when it comes to the major urbanized areas in the southeast adjacent to Detroit, which are not limited to Wayne County.  Oakland, Washtenaw, and Macomb Counties are all rife with corruption that blots out the organic Trump working-class surges present in many of their areas.  If that’s not bad enough, voter registration fraud rings have been broken up in the west, too, like in Muskegon County.

Biden’s 2020 win was brought about by massive ballot harvesting and likely also by electronic corruption that was enough to cancel out and surpass a Trump gain much larger than the one he posted in 2016 to win the state by the narrowest of margins.  Harris’s recipe for victory is the same, and she’ll need major ballot counts out of Oakland, Wayne, Kent, Macomb, Washtenaw, and other mid-sized counties throughout the state that stem from the abundance of registrations to pull from, which Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has done nothing to remedy.  Short of rampant corruption, her path is as bleak here as it is in Pennsylvania.

---

What Trump Must Do to Win