My 2024 Pennsylvania 67 County Trend Forecast

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

Situation

Pennsylvania is widely considered the most important decisive state this year, not only because it is the most valuable with 19 electoral votes, but because it serves as a key indicator of national working-class sentiment.  If Trump is strong there, he’s strong everywhere, and if he can’t get over the top there, then we won’t be getting over the top in Michigan, either.  The Democrats knew this in 2020, which is why they fielded the “Scranton Joe” character in an attempt to sell what was one of the most corrupt election outcomes in the history of the Western world.  They know it today, which is why Governor Josh Shapiro took executive action to flood the voter rolls with new absentee placeholders via Automatic Voter Registration, which is the kiss of death for free and fair elections anywhere it is practiced.

I’ve opined that Shapiro made the most sense on paper for Harris’s running mate because he would put wind in the sails of the media narrative that Pennsylvania should stay in the Democrat column, even if statistics and history don’t give as much weight to the V.P. choice as is maintained by pundits and prognosticators.  With Shapiro now sidelined, polling looks like hell for Harris, and recent reports have her campaign in shambles in the Keystone State and searching for paths to 270 electoral votes without it (narrator: not looking good for her).

Before you get started, familiarize yourself with my county classification model.  Everything you need to know about what follows is contained in that free article.  And yes, this forecast accounts for the presence and likelihood of massive election rigging.

Party Registration Data

·      Statewide

2020 Election: D+7.5% (+685,818 Democrat registration lead)

9/9/2024: D+3.9% (+347,996 Democrat registration lead)

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Crimson Counties (52

Right off the bat, over 77% of Pennsylvania’s counties are Trump central, fully confirming what James Carville said when he quipped that Pennsylvania is “Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in between.”  As with the other states I’ve trend analyzed, Harris’s lid is likely to be Biden’s 2020 total in all of these and given the decrease in mail requests and organic Trump trending, I’d be surprised if she doesn’t plummet from these, further enhancing Trump’s margins.

At minimum, I expect Trump to expand his margin by 196,261 in these 52 counties, which represent the heart of steel and fracking country in the Keystone State.  Some of these were littered with rampant fraud in the 2020 race, such as York, Westmoreland, Washington, Luzerne, and Berks Counties, in which overwhelming Trump margins are required to conquer Philadelphia and its collar counties in the southeast.  Every county in this tier, except for Luzerne (which will have a GOP registration advantage by next month) holds a GOP registration advantage still progressing rightward from 2020 in weekly updates.

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Republican Counties (2)