The Fall of Sioux Falls: How Red States are Systematically "Purpled"

Topic: Elections

I first discovered Sioux Falls, South Dakota, in the winter of 2019, when I was a salesman in the transportation technology industry.  Temperatures that February were below zero in the Dakotas, so I didn’t have much motivation to look around town or explore the surrounding area.  I visited a few times in between that first visit and my most notable visit, which was my appearance at the Cyber Symposium on August 11, 2021, which caught the attention of many people who simply needed the evidence of the 2020 election theft spelled out in plain English.

With better weather and more time, I’ve seen more of Sioux Falls and Minnehaha County, which grew, according to the latest census, by 27,746 (16.4%) since the previous census, the largest (barely) ten-year spike in the history of the county.  The Sioux Falls metro is receiving political expats from Minneapolis, Chicago, and other leftist hellholes in the region, but has grown at what appears to be a manageable rate.  It is undoubtedly the political and economic hub of South Dakota, made up of a largely moderate Republican base, evidenced by the county’s support of Barack Obama in 2008, when he was within ten points of John McCain in the state.

Current narratives suggest growth due to blue state expat relocation mandates the “purpling” or “bluing” of a county over time.  Voter registration trends in Florida and North Carolina dispute that, as do Trump vote tallies in Arizona, Texas, Tennessee, and Georgia, but this is irrelevant to narrative makers.  They will utterly will a county or state into “blue” status, and when election rigging occurs, they point to their polls or previous articles (see “Battleground Texas” from a decade ago) as if to say, “I told you so.”

As such, it has been declared that Minnehaha County must become a purple hub controlled by the moderate cartel, with either a pink or light blue shade acceptable.  The state of South Dakota, in this current political era, will never be “blue.”  It is simply not possible; however, by manipulating the major urban areas of the state (Rapid City is the other), state chambers can be weakened to produce a watered-down Republican majority that complies with a global agenda to defraud American citizens of their prosperity and liberties.

So, does population growth and urban and suburban development demand a Democrat shift?  Let’s check out the most time-honored system of forecasting ever constructed, which is voter registration by party.  Watch the party registration trends as the cycles pass, and compare with the direction of the results.

MINNEHAHA COUNTY, SD

2004

Bush 44,189 (56.92%)

Kerry 32,314 (41.62%)

Margin: Bush +11,875 (+15.30%)

Party ID (how many more GOP than DEM registrations at time of election): GOP +7.2%

2008

Obama 39,838 (49.46%)

McCain 39,251 (48.73%)

Margin: Obama +587 (+0.73%)

Party ID: GOP +2.2% (+5,573 Democrat, +960 GOP registrations since 2004)

Registration Trend: Democrat +5.0% (suggests better Democrat performance than 2004)

Vote Margin Trend: Democrat +16.03% (better than 2004, predicted by registration trend)

Vote Swing: Democrat +12,462 (better than 2004, predicted by registration trend)

2012

Romney 40,342 (52.68%)

Obama 34,674 (45.28%)

Margin: Romney +5,668 (+7.40%)

Party ID: GOP +3.4% (+1,188 GOP, -307 Democrat registrations since 2008)

Registration Trend: GOP +1.2% (suggests better GOP performance than 2008)

Vote Margin Trend: GOP +8.13% (better than 2008, predicted by registration trend)

Vote Swing: GOP +6,255 (better than 2008, predicted by registration trend)

2016

Trump 42,043 (53.72%)

Clinton 30,610 (39.11%)

Margin: Trump +11,433 (+14.61%)

Party ID: GOP +7.4% (+901 GOP, -3,830 Democrat registrations since 2012)

Registration Trend: GOP +4.0% (suggests better GOP performance than 2012)

Vote Margin Trend: GOP +7.21% (better than 2012, predicted by registration trend)

Vote Swing: GOP +5,765 (better than 2012, predicted by registration trend)

Going into 2020, Minnehaha County has self-corrected and repented for backing Barack Obama and drifting toward urban leftism in 2008, trending a total of 15.34% in a Republican direction, with Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 2016 having fewer votes than the previous Democrat performance, with registrations foreshadowing more favorable GOP trends.

News for Democrats is very bad in terms of voter registration in Trump’s term.  While Trump already trended Minnehaha County 7.4% more Republican in his first run, without the complete support of the moderate Republican base, the GOP went on to add five times as many registrations (4,387) as they did in the four years leading up to Trump’s first run.  The Democrats continued their nosedive, losing another 1,149 registrations.  The county became nearly another four points more Republican in registration, pointing to not only a record gain of net new votes for the GOP nominee (incumbent Trump), but a margin of victory likely to exceed 20 points.

As expected, Trump came out with 49,249 votes, a gain of 7,206 from 2016, four times higher than his gain of net new votes in 2016.  Biden is clearly headed well below 30,000 votes.  Right?

2020

Trump 49,249

Biden 40,482

Margin: Trump +8,767 (+9.49%)

Party ID: GOP +11.2% (+4,387 GOP, -1,149 Democrat registrations since 2016)

Registration Trend: GOP +3.8% (suggests better GOP performance than 2016)

Vote Margin Trend: Democrat +5.12% (defies registration predictor)

Vote Swing: Democrat +2,666 (defies registration predictor)

There you have it.  The county trended heavily Republican two elections in a row as the Democrats lost control of the Upper Midwest, the non-college white vote, and minorities, with Donald Trump nearly doubling Mitt Romney’s margin of victory in 2016.  Trump went on to set the all-time GOP vote gain record for one single election cycle but was outgained in net new votes by Joe Biden 9,872 to 7,206, giving the county a 5.12% Democrat trend from 2016.

Recent election trends and registration data, combined with a simple assessment of voter behavior (non-college whites leaving the Democrats, becoming Republican), forecast a Trump win margin of over 20 points.  If we are to form the hypothesis that there are simply too many Biden votes, and accept Trump’s 49,249 votes, and the near certainty that Biden’s vote total will be below 30,000 (based on two consecutive cycles of decline, voter registration data, and Trump’s record increase which suggests he sucked up a vast quantity of suburban moderate and independent votes), we have results that look like this (conservatively).

Trump 49,249 (60.47%)

Biden 30,000 (36.66%)

Other 2,595

Total 81,844

2020 Trump Certified Victory

+8,767 (+9.49%)

2020 Trump Likely Victory

+19,249 (+23.81%)

Difference

-10,482 (-14.32%)

In conclusion, Joe Biden likely has, at bare minimum, 10,482 phantom or otherwise illegally garnered votes in Minnehaha County, South Dakota.  Trump’s margin of victory should have been at least 23.81%, if not closer to 30% in a more aggressive analysis.  The fall of Sioux Falls is important, because as the city and county expand, they will require more representation and thereby water down the conservative density of South Dakota as a whole.  It will become another Idaho or Utah, neutered by the “moderate” traits of Boise and Ada County.  While the state will never be blue, it will be a very pale shade of pink that will rubber stamp much of the conservative agenda but fail to aggressively champion the most critical components for restoring liberty in the country.

With this artificial result, the narrative that Trump was unpopular with urban and suburban electorates is furthered and does not conflict with similar results in “contested” states.  A 30-point Trump win in Minnehaha County would have opposed that narrative, been very difficult to defend, and enshrined South Dakota as a red-pilled bastion of liberty.

Do not buy the narrative that growth and expansion go hand in hand with Democrat serfdom.