Earlier this week, I examined midterm turnout since Nixon’s second term, and decided that the chronic electile dysfunction we suffer under didn’t start in 2020 to deprive Trump of a second term but began in full force in 2018 to deaden the America First agenda. This is not to say that cheating in elections hasn’t been occurring since voting began (it has), but elections showed clear adherence to certain norms, trends, and statistical tendencies up until 2018. We just didn’t notice because the most popular political figure in America was not removed from his office.
As indicated in the graphic below, midterm turnout was nearly 5/6ths of the previous presidential turnout, which is enormously high. Keeping with norms, there should have been about 90 million votes cast in the 2018 midterms, and no more than 99 million if the 1982 enthusiasm mark were met. Instead, there were 111 million votes. The media would have readers believe Republicans didn’t show up to back Trump in 2018, when they still expanded the GOP majority in the Senate. Paul Ryan’s feckless House leadership benefitted from Trump, as 50 million supported the “red” team in 2018, amounting to nearly 80 percent of Trump’s votes from 2016.
So what happens when there are likely 12 to 21 million more votes than forecast? Seats are impacted. The Republicans expanded the Senate majority despite substantial cheating, but the expansion was dramatically stunted. They should have also expanded the House majority, rather than relinquishing it entirely. This is another narrative move, with the media actually promoting the standard political science that the President’s party suffers in midterms, and insinuating that the fresh air of America First government is actually unwelcome.
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