Three Things I Know About Trump's V.P. Pick

Topic: Perspective

Donald Trump broke the political compass, perhaps forever.  Prior to his election in 2016, every president had either been elected to some previous office, or had been a general in the military.  Then came the businessman from New York, which the political bureaucracy and administrative state used as a narrative to justify the aberrations, tricks, and outright fraud perpetrated upon the people in the 2020 presidential quasi-election.

Similarly, Vice Presidential candidates have been selected from entrenched political calculus all the way back to 1800, when Thomas Jefferson ran with Aaron Burr against the incumbent John Adams and Charles Pinckney.  Most politicos will tell you the Vice President pick needs to contrast the Presidential nominee and net him the portion of the obtainable electorate he is weakest with.  Mike Pence was chosen because he hailed from the Industrial Midwest and because most people thought Trump would run weak with evangelicals, even though he went on to pick up a record share of their votes that election, even higher than George W. Bush’s in 2004.  It turned out to be affluent “moderate” Vichy Republicans he ran weaker with, like those in suburban Texas and in Maricopa County, Arizona, among other locations.  I’m not so sure any of these tips of the trade are applicable anymore, either.

Today, the rumor mill is putting out Vivek Ramaswamy as the latest Trump V.P. pick, even though Trump himself has said only he knows who the pick is.  I wouldn’t pay it any mind until I hear him announce that choice this Thursday, not any more than I did when everyone went into meltdown mode a couple months back when people said Nikki Haley was going to be the “unity” pick.  You see how that turned out.

Now that we’ve laid some groundwork here, why don’t we run down the checklist of items that are relevant to the discussion of a Trumpian V.P. pick in 2024?

And, by the way – I don’t know who Trump’s pick is!

I.                             Location is Low Priority

This election will be decided by nine states – two that Trump must hold, and by my count, seven that are up for grabs and will likely factor in Trump reaching 270 electoral votes or not.  I don’t see a pathway to 270 without Georgia, although it is technically possible, but Marjorie Taylor Greene isn’t going to help Trump with the middle of the road voter or the female vote.  We don’t have a good complement for Trump from Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin, and Kristi Noem, another name floating around (not that she is my choice), doesn’t hail from a state that even borders a state that will decide the election (Minnesota may be competitive, but it won’t be the deciding state).

I had been excited about the prospect of Kari Lake in this role, but her run for the U.S. Senate makes it clear she’s not on the shortlist, ruling out Arizona being the home of his running mate, and we have no options in Nevada or New Hampshire.  As for location, J.D. Vance of Ohio is the only potential running mate being circulated hailing from a critical region, the Industrial Midwest.  Logic tells me location isn’t going to be the play for Trump.