What If Indiana Took Over A Quarter of Illinois’ Population?

Things would be much better off for nearly 3 million people, and a big precedent for Republican dominance would take root.

Greater Idaho and the various California secession movements aren’t alone in trying to broker amicable divorces in their sections of the country. Indiana is starting to kick the tires on taking over large swaths of Illinois and would have had the foundation poured if a companion bill didn’t stall out over the line in Springfield earlier this spring.

Indiana Governor Mike Braun signed House Bill 1008 into law earlier this month, which calls for a commission to explore annexing Illinois counties that have conducted successful non-binding votes to secede from the struggling Land of Lincoln. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, one of the COVID-19 villains who flies under the radar, calls the push a “stunt,” and to his approval, the companion bill required to make both ends of the commission meet in the middle never made it out of committee in his state.

So, things will have to wait.

In order for states to redraw boundaries, both legislatures in the impacted states must agree with their own legislation, and the changes must be accepted by the U.S. Congress. This hasn’t happened since Texas and Oklahoma redrew some changes to the Red River in 1999, and hasn’t altered the boundaries of any populated areas of counties since Virginia and West Virginia redrew their boundary in 1925.

Here are the 33 Illinois counties (on left) that have formally begged to be let out of Chicago’s vice grips:

Democrats love control, so don’t expect Pritzker or anyone else running Illinois to suggest this as a way to improve political harmony; however, Indiana seems to think this is worth planning for in the event of a debt crisis in Illinois that would require the government to lighten its load and focus on the urban northeastern portion of the state, primarily within the Chicago metro. If it all hit the fan and Illinois allowed its captive deeply Republican counties throughout the vast geographic expanse of the state to join Indiana, I don’t think it would be in the scattered fashion shown above and related to its assorted secession votes. They’d need to set a boundary and let loose, even though they would take a major hit in agricultural production. I’m thinking the Illinois River is the primary boundary, keeping Peoria in existing Illinois, but pushing Springfield to Indiana, requiring Illinois to name a new capital closer to Chicago:

I’ve run the numbers, and the 27 remain counties (sorry, Pastor Steve), headlined by metro Chicago, contain roughly 9.9 million of Illinois’ 12.7 million residents, or 78% of the existing population. Only 2 of every 9 Illinois residents would become a Hoosier if sweeping changes went into effect. You should be able to clearly see why Illinois is dominated by the blue plague, with about two-thirds of the vote coming from six counties associated with metro Chicago.

If this were to pass, and Indiana went from a population of 6.9 million to 9.7 million, the two new states would be nearly identical in terms of population (Illinois would have 9.9 million). Within a few years, Indiana would surpass Illinois because the blue state misery would accelerate with nothing remotely Republican to put anything in check.

Currently, Illinois has 19 electoral votes, and Indiana 11, for a total of 30.

This change would likely force the Electoral College to split these 30 electoral votes equally, with 15 going to each state. For reference, Michigan has 15 electoral votes today with a population of 10.1 million.

If the 2024 election were held with Indiana and Illinois equal, Trump would have won by this score - by 94 electoral votes instead of 86:

Trump 316

Harris 222

This change swings eight net electoral votes, exactly the impact of Louisiana or Kentucky (both 8 electoral votes), or New Mexico plus Delaware (8 total). It would move the solid GOP electoral count from 235 (the Trump 2020 states) to 239, meaning Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada could win it for a GOP nominee instead of needing to pull any of the Rust Belt states. This would also be a huge swing in the U.S. House for the GOP, with Illinois Democrats less capable of rigging geography for Democrat wins in deep red turf.

Most importantly, it would make for a harmonious political future for almost 3 million people living under massive corruption. Remember, Bob Dole said it best about Chicago in his farewell letter to America:

I also confess that I am a bit curious to learn if I am correct in thinking that Heaven will look a lot like Kansas, and to see, like others who have gone before me, if I will be able to vote in Chicago.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.