White Pill: Let Me Show You How Far Off "The Polls" Were at this Point in 2020

Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

The polling industry, save for a few honest dealers, reminds me of the rest of the grift that comes with American political life.  Take campaign signs, for instance.  Those are the LinkedIn profiles of the political world, in which no one really needs one, but because everyone else has them, they are a de facto requirement.  I am not convinced campaign signs do anything but put money in the coffers of print shops, who usually charge so much for them based on demand the printing gets outsourced to some other state, so candidates can’t even hang a hat on supporting local business.  I mean, really – when someone pulls up to an intersection and sees a sign for Candidate A right next to Candidate B’s sign for the same race, is that supposed to help with a decision?

I think not.  All this stuff rings traumatic bells for military veterans, who’ve been told for a lifetime that this is the way we have always done it, so grab a number and stand in line.  So it goes with polling, the modern-day equivalent of sorcery and witchcraft that is twisted and manipulated whichever way the media narrative blows, and however the almighty dollar commands.

My friend Larry Schweikart often says, “I don’t do polls, but for those who do…” before referencing a given poll.  What has become apparent to me outside of the media’s purpose in wielding them, is that top lines are often fudged significantly, but crosstabs in the polling can be relevant.  For more on that subject, read about how I shredded a mainstream poll that, although manipulated, couldn’t hide a Trump lead last month.  Pretty much every set of rigged polls this year still shows substantially higher black and Hispanic support for Trump, large margins with independent voters, a better white working-class performance, and a winning margin with seniors, both in expected election performance for this year and from 2020’s polling.

This year’s polling, although it has devolved into an epic shitshow since Harris has been foisted on the American public, isn’t all bad.  Trump is regularly ahead, albeit narrowly in the averages of polling for the Electoral College count, and as you’re aware, national polls don’t matter much anymore, with Democrats now able to win the “popular vote” by 4%, or perhaps even more, and lose the Electoral College.  I will be focusing on the six contested states of the 2020 election – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – to highlight just how far polling missed the mark (and usually deliberately) at this point in the 2020 race, considering Real Clear Politics’ polling inclusions from August of that horrible year.

I will be showing the disparities between the polling averages and the final certified margins, which in themselves are far off the mark given the fraudulent proceedings surrounding Biden’s installation.

ARIZONA

Status: Discounting a bogus NYT/Siena poll last week, polls constantly show Trump ahead by low single digits in Arizona, which has moved to R+6.3% since the 2020 race in terms of party registration, when it was just R+3.1% then.

August 2020 Polls (6 RCP Polls)

August Average: Biden +3.2%

Worst: Biden +9%

Best: Trump +1%

Certified Margin: Biden +0.3%

August Polling Miss: 2.9%

Add a few points to Trump for any poll coming out of Arizona.

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GEORGIA

Status: Polls are generally showing a narrow Trump lead, or a statistical tie, in a state in which roughly 30% of the vote is black, which stands to improve significantly for Trump in 2024.

August 2020 Polls (3 RCP Polls)

August Average: Trump +2.3%

Worst: Biden +2%

Best: Trump +7%

Certified Margin: Biden +0.2%

August Polling Miss: N/A

This is the only state in this data set that shows a state slipping away from Trump after August, and it appears to be because Georgia became needed for the Biden column once North Carolina wasn’t going to find its way there.  Polling started shifting toward Biden in September, even though Trump led narrowly in the average up to Election Day.  My read here is that Georgia wasn’t heavy on the priority list for propaganda at this point in the 2020 cycle.

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MICHIGAN

Status: Polls are showing a narrow lead for Harris of about 2 points, which is within the margin of error even in honest polling.