Why It's Going to be Vance in 2028 (Or At Least You Should Hope)

There is no case for expecting this administration to be historically great, and not seeing the V.P. take the reins. Anyone else at the top of the ticket suggests something went terribly wrong.

Do you remember, back in July, when I wrote a piece entitled, “The Big Picture: Why Trump Picked Vance”? I did so at a time when many reputable sources, such as The Conservative Treehouse, were highly skeptical of him, his background, and particularly his past Never Trumper statements. Ultimately, I decided these four things were requirements for a solid Trump running mate:

· Enhance regional appeal to key states

· Do not lose voters, with gaining new voters a bonus but not as critical as not losing voters

· Do not oppose major parts of the agenda

· Tell a necessary story to the public

Vance checked all four boxes, and clearly, as evidenced by the Trump-Vance administration at the helm, did not hinder the cause of victory. I was willing to overlook the comments he had made years ago that were highly critical of Trump, as many of you reading this piece today likely held similar sentiments in 2015 when attempting to shake off your ideologically based, Arlington-inspired beliefs about a populist takeover of a party that had bottomed out in 2012 with 206 electoral votes, unable to win Ohio, Iowa, or Florida, which all went to Trump by a minimum of 11.2% last fall. Here were the positives I identified last summer:

· Vance said he wouldn’t have certified the 2020 election if he had been in Mike Pence’s position, and said it was fraudulent.

· Vance seems to despise Ukraine and doesn’t support spending money there.

· Papers around the world don’t like that Vance appears set on “isolationism.”

· He is a social conservative and staunchly pro-life, which represents a bone thrown to evangelicals who have been upset with Trump departing from certain hardline party positions.

· He recognizes “replacement theory,” which is the use of third-world immigration (legal and illegal) to import all new electorates to Western nations.

Had Harris been installed as President last fall, like Biden was four years before, this would be a top ten candidate rollout for the GOP presidential nomination in 2028:

· J.D. Vance

· Glenn Youngkin

· Ron DeSantis

· Brian Kemp

· Kristi Noem

· Greg Abbott

· Marco Rubio

· Tim Scott

· Sarah Huckabee Sanders

· Jeff Landry

Maybe I’ve missed a name here (Gabbard) or included someone without much name recognition (Landry), but that’s just about what I would expect a field to look like in 2028 if a Democrat were sitting in the White House today. Now I’m going to tell you in the simplest terms why smart Trump backers should be pulling for J.D. Vance to be the 2028 Republican nominee:

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If Vance isn’t the nominee in 2028, then it means something went terribly wrong in the three years preceding the GOP primary, starting right about now.

I mean, really – someone give me the case for how we can simultaneously say that the Trump 47 administration was an historic success, but in response, we should run out and nominate someone other than his Vice President, such as Brian Kemp, to placate the shrinking segment of Trump-hesitant Republican base voters and stymie the interests of the minority working class, which is coming around now after a century in the wilderness.

Hey guys, we know J.D. Vance went over to Europe every year to remind the Old World that we could care less about using American resources to prop up their wars and welfare states, but let’s shift gears here and nominate someone more celebrated by the global think tanks and put this whole economic nationalism thing on the table for a while.

Vance should most certainly win the primary as long as we continue reforming the country at the current rate – which has Trump-era high approval ratings from all Americans (depending on which source you listen to). In the twilight of the Reagan days, George H.W. Bush won 67.9% of delegates, fending off Bob Dole and Pat Robertson for the 1988 nomination en route to winning the Presidency that fall in a 40-state landslide (this was the only occasion since World War II that a party won three consecutive presidential elections). It is also true that the sitting Vice President normally loses his run for president:

· Nixon 1960

· Humphrey 1968

· Gore 2000

· Harris 2024

Nixon nearly won his race and likely had it ripped off by election fraud in Illinois and Texas; Humphrey lost a three-man race with Lyndon Johnson so unpopular thanks to Vietnam and domestic unrest he didn’t even seek reelection; Gore nearly won the presidency over Bush, missing out thanks to the slimmest of margins in Florida; Harris, well – she was Kamala Harris.

If Trump is able to keep up his torrid pace and cement his legacy as one of America’s greatest presidents, Vance’s likely run would come just four years into the Golden Age, not eight, which is a better omen than political science suggesting shifting political headwinds after eight years of incumbent fatigue. Vance represents a near-certainty to hold the Core 235 (all Trump 2020 states, which includes North Carolina), and plays well with the suburban GOP crowds of Georgia and Arizona, which makes him a safe bet for a floor of 262 electoral votes. That means Vance would need to come up with 8 electoral votes out of the following 83 electoral votes:

· Pennsylvania (19) – tough task if Shapiro is Democrat nominee

· Michigan (15) – tough task if Whitmer is Democrat nominee

· Virginia (13)

· Wisconsin (10)

· Minnesota (10)

· Nevada (6)

· New Mexico (5)

· New Hampshire (4)

· Nebraska’s 2^nd C.D. (1)

You may not like J.D. Vance, or perhaps you have lingering concerns over some of his past ties other sources have pointed out; however, if you are hoping for all the best and brightest things to come in the next four years, you are also doing so realizing that there is no other 2028 nominee that can reasonably come out of unprecedented presidential success than the sitting Vice President.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.