Two days ago, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, in a communication (shown below) to Ohio Democrat Party chair Liz Walters, warned that the Biden-Harris ticket is in dire jeopardy of not appearing on the November General Election ballot:
The most critical part of LaRose’s letter is this:
“…the Ohio Revised Code requires a political party selecting its presidential and vice presidential candidates by nominating convention to “certify the names of those candidates to the secretary of state on or before the ninetieth day before the day of the general election.”
Ohio’s deadline for ballot access is August 7. The Democrat National Convention doesn’t even happen until two weeks after that. Biden not only misses this deadline but misses it in grand fashion. Trump, on the other hand, will clear the deadline by almost three weeks. Remember, Ohio used to be a big deal on the electoral map, and thanks to its 17 electoral votes, is still significant, even if it’s no longer the bellwether it was from 1896 through 2016, when it went to every presidential winner but two (see 1944 and 1960). Democrats are also trying to defend Sherrod Brown’s vulnerable U.S. Senate seat in this increasingly reddening state with Trump on the ballot.
Sounds like not only a guarantee of 17 Trump electors, but with no Democrat on the presidential ticket, a major setback for Brown’s reelection. Why would anyone in Trump’s corner, after understanding that the Ohio legislature isn’t going to waive the ballot requirement and the Democrats are just about out of time to move their convention date to get Biden on the ticket in Ohio, hope instead that Biden would be spared this embarrassing outcome?
Here are three reasons why it is best for Trump if Biden is on the Ohio ballot:
I. Enjoyment
If Biden isn’t on the ballot, Trump will carry the state by an unfathomable margin, with north of 65% of the vote, assuming Democrats show up and vote third party. While that is funny, it would be explained away as a technicality, sort of like how it was always more embarrassing in school to complete a quiz or test and make a 36, rather than to be assigned a “zero” for a missed assignment. I believe Republican challenger Bernie Moreno would also oust Sherrod Brown from the U.S. Senate in this scenario with ease since an incalculable number of presidential-only voting Democrats would stay home, offering up what would likely amount to a mid-term level turnout in the best case, if only to try and get Brown back in there.
My friend and favorite historian Larry Schweikart may not agree, but I had Trump by 14.9% in a fair Ohio race in 2020’s quasi-election, which is still shy of Reagan’s 1984 margin. My current estimate is that Ohio will go to Trump by more than 10 points in the certified (with manipulation) results, and between 15-18% in authentic results not manipulated by mail-in balloting fraud. That would mean we are looking at Trump closing in on 60% of the vote in what was once viewed as the battleground of all battlegrounds, which would not only make it difficult for the Democrats to find enough ticket splitters to reelect Brown but would also show the electorate there would be a major rightward gravitational pull upon Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Removing Biden from the ticket removes the potential enjoyment of a runaway Trump train in Ohio, and perhaps most importantly, obscures true results to mask any potential fraudulent activities in Pennsylvania and Michigan, which are as certain as tomorrow’s sunrise. In this sense, it appears that not putting Biden on the ballot in Ohio can be viewed as a favor to his campaign. No one would buy Trump at 58-61% in Ohio, but not winning Michigan and Pennsylvania.
II. Precedent
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