Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Ohio (17 Electoral Votes)

Topic: Elections

OHIO

Basic Election Facts

2024 Electoral Votes: 17

Population (2020 Census): 11,799,448 (+262,944 since 2010)

Likely Population at 2024 Election: 11,900,000

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Partisanship

Governor Party: Republican

State House Majority: Republican

State Senate Majority: Republican

U.S. House Delegation: 9 Republicans, 5 Democrats, 1 vacant

U.S. Senate Delegation: 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)

White: 75.9%

Latino: 4.4%

Black: 14.0%

Other: 5.7%

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Presidential History since 1932

Times Republican: 10

Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +8.0%

Times Democrat: 13

Last: Barack Obama, 2012, +3.0%

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Presidential Election Characteristics

·      From 1896 through 2016, Ohio was a near-perfect bellwether, aligning with the winning presidential candidate all but twice, in 1944 and 1960, although 1960 was riddled with debate over the national outcome, and 2020 even more so.  Ohio may no longer be a bellwether going forward, as it appears to be much more traditionally Republican today than at any other point since the New Deal.

·      Had George W. Bush lost Ohio (2.1% margin) in 2004, he would have lost the Electoral College while winning the popular vote.

·      The state has a mix of traditional conservative strength as well as white working-class Democrat crossover strength propelling Trump.  Cuyahoga County, home to metro Cleveland, is declining in voting strength due to population loss, helping drive the Buckeye State further right.  Franklin County, home to Columbus and Ohio State, is the only growing leftist hub in the state, and it has been neutralized by the reddening of rural Ohio.

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2020 Review

Official: Donald Trump +8.0% (475,669 votes in margin)

Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +14.9% (827,625 votes in margin)

Trump’s 2020 win in Ohio, though significantly large, is a tick to the left of his 2016 margin despite all indicators suggesting the Industrial Midwest should have had a rightward lurch, which would have solidified Pennsylvania and Michigan for Trump.  Excess votes are spread throughout the state and most significant in Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Summit Counties.  Despite the cheating, there were some pro-Trump surprises, such as Trump becoming the first Republican presidential nominee to carry Lorain County since 1984, and Mahoning County since 1972.  Mahoning County is generally only carried by GOP nominees in re-election landslides, another “tell” that things were not on the up and up next door in Pennsylvania, and up the road in Michigan.

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2024 Preview

Prediction: Donald Trump >+10% official, 15-18% clean

Ohio’s population, while not on the decline, is not keeping up with relative growth of other states.  This has cost the Buckeye State one electoral vote for this decade, pushing it down to 17 from 18.  The state does not register voters by party, but based on the movement in Pennsylvania, with 63 of 67 counties registering more Republican since the 2020 election, it’s a safe assessment that Ohio is going to Trump in a blowout, cheating or not.  It is also likely that Trump will substantially dent the black vote, creating the potential for a 15+ point certified win.  Watch for Trump around 3.5 million votes, which would create a margin of more than a million in a race not altered by mail-in balloting abuse, and that is assuming Biden is allowed on the ballot at all.  Those antics will be needed if Ohio Democrats hope to keep Sherrod Brown’s U.S. Senate seat from going overboard and falling into the hands of his Republican challenger, Bernie Moreno, who will be dragged over the finish line if Trump drives his own margin high enough.  The media may try and broadcast the early count as a dogfight, but it won’t take long to call Ohio and give its 17 electors to Trump.

If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 88 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.

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Florida

South Carolina

Delaware

Maryland

Washington, D.C.

New Jersey

New York

Connecticut

Rhode Island

Massachusetts

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West Virginia

Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!