Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Delaware (3 Electoral Votes)

Topic: Elections

Delaware

Basic Election Facts

2024 Electoral Votes: 3

Population (2020 Census): 989,948 (+92,014 since 2010)

Likely Population at 2024 Election: 1,050,000

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Partisanship

Governor Party: Democrat

State House Majority: Democrat

State Senate Majority: Democrat

U.S. House Delegation: 1 Democrat

U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats

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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)

White: 68.9%

Black: 21.4%

Other: 9.7%

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Presidential History since 1932

Times Republican: 9

Last: George H.W. Bush, 1988, +12.4%

Times Democrat: 14

Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +19.0%

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Presidential Election Characteristics

·      Delaware voted for 8 of 11 Republican presidential nominees between 1948 and 1988 and joined the “blue wall” in 1992, meaning it has an eight-election Democrat streak ongoing.

·      Statewide elections are dominated by New Castle County, which makes up nearly 60 percent of Delaware’s population and accounted for 57 percent of the 2020 vote.

·      Delaware’s Democrat strength will dwindle as black voters in New Castle County, which contains metro Wilmington, defect from the party.

2020 Review

Official: Joe Biden +19.0% (95,665 votes)

Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +9.4% (42,397 votes)

No Democrat nominee has lost his or her home state since Al Gore in 2000; therefore, I do not find it likely that Biden would have lost Delaware even in a clean race, and most of my estimates inflate his county forecasts by a modest percentage to account for “home field advantage.”  Delaware had been on a two-election Republican trend, moving 6.4% to the right for Mitt Romney and another 7.2% right for Donald Trump in 2016, until Joe Biden came in nearly 41,000 votes above Barack Obama’s 2008 vote total, when he won the state by 25% amidst a crushing performance on the eastern seaboard.

My analytical method spots at least 11,552 likely fraudulent votes in each of Delaware’s three counties, led by New Castle County with a minimum of 25,034. 

2024 Preview

Prediction: Joe Biden >+15% official, <5% clean

Joe Biden, or any Democrat, will be called the winner of Delaware as soon as polls close.  I believe Trump’s improvement with all demographics, including the black vote, will make it difficult for the state to trend artificially further left than it did in 2020, when it went more than seven points left thanks to my estimate of likely fraudulent ballots (I have the race within 10 points even with Biden as nominee).

Trump will likely clear 220,000 votes, and Biden will most likely be between 290,000 and 310,000.  In a legitimate race considering real political trends, Delaware would likely be within five points even with Biden running out of his home state, and perhaps a candidate for an upset with a different Democrat nominee; however, in a reality filled with mail-in balloting abuse, a dominant urban center, and Automatic Voter Registration, this state is blue “no matter who.”

Previous Installments

Florida

South Carolina

Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!