Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Connecticut (7 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
CONNECTICUT
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 7
Population (2020 Census): 3,605,944 (+31,847 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 3,625,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Democrat
State House Majority: Democrat
State Senate Majority: Democrat
U.S. House Delegation: 5 Democrats
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 63.2%
Latino: 17.3%
Black: 11.4%
Other: 8.1%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 9
Last: George H.W. Bush, 1988, +5.1%
Times Democrat: 14
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +20.0%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
·     In both of his previous races, President Trump carried just two counties, Litchfield and Windham, which provided margins of less than 6,000 votes each in 2020; in contrast, two of Biden’s counties, Fairfield and Hartford, provided margins of greater than 124,000 each.
·     Over 73% of the state’s vote comes from Fairfield, Hartford, and New Haven Counties. Fairfield County, a GOP stronghold from 1944 through 1988, has become a commuter suburb of New York City and followed a stubbornly leftward trend with a lot more votes to account for, making Connecticut a very heavy lift.
·     Despite Connecticut’s urban density, it showed a nearly 4-point swing toward Trump in 2016 with declining Democrat strength before the manipulation of the 2020 race gave Biden a larger Democrat margin than Obama had in 2012. This is largely due to the disparate impact of global trade arrangements and the opioids crisis that has hit New England particularly hard.
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2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +20.0% (365,389 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +11.9% (196,708 votes in margin)
Trump’s net vote gain in Connecticut was slightly higher than his own uptick in 2016, which was accompanied by the second consecutive Democrat vote loss; however, thanks to Connecticut’s implementation of Automatic Voter Registration and 2020’s ridiculous mail-in rotted national election, Biden eclipsed Obama’s 2008 gain and 12-point leftward shifting of the state by over 30% in net votes gained from 2016. The big three Democrat counties mentioned in this report - Hartford, New Haven, and Fairfield – all appear to have at least 37,630 fictitious votes each. The potential for such fraud in Connecticut has been confirmed by public ballot harvesting scandals in which elections are now being contested based on the corruption of the mail-in voting system.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Joe Biden >+14% official, <10% clean
Trump will need to sustain his polling improvement with suburban voters to make a dent in Fairfield County and may make up some ground in New Haven County with minority working class voters, but the more naturally Republican areas in the state are small and not able to override the big three Democrat strongholds. With depressed Democrat turnout and reluctance to cheat at scale thanks to the election corruption that is now out in public, it is possible Trump will get this race down in the low teens, or below ten points with a natural trend. Look for President Trump to clear 750,000 votes with a gain in keeping with his two previous elections. Connecticut will almost certainly land in the safe column for Biden and be a quick call.
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Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Thank you for keeping your consistent focus. We all must.