Know Your 2024 Electoral College: New York (28 Electoral Votes)

Topic: Elections

NEW YORK

Basic Election Facts

2024 Electoral Votes: 28

Population (2020 Census): 20,201,249 (+823,147 since 2010)

Likely Population at 2024 Election: 19,500,000

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Partisanship

Governor Party: Democrat

State House Majority: Democrat

State Senate Majority: Democrat

U.S. House Delegation: 16 Democrats, 10 Republicans

U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats

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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)

White: 54.7%

Latino: 19.2%

Black: 13.9

Other: 12.2%

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Presidential History since 1932

Times Republican: 6

Last: Ronald Reagan, 1984, +8.0%

Times Democrat: 17

Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +23.1%

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Presidential Election Characteristics

·      New York City’s population density (44.3% of Biden’s certified ballot total came from the five boroughs), and offsetting Democrat strongholds in Upstate New York, make the Empire State an extreme challenge for Republican statewide victories, although there is evidence of a huge working class shift in favor of the GOP practically everywhere outside of Albany, Manhattan, and Brooklyn.

·      Many of western New York’s mid-sized counties are among the most historically Republican in the nation, with GOP streaks going back to the Civil War; however, these counties lack the size to overwhelm New York City.

·      New York resembles New Jersey in that its minority vote is substantial and diverse, with 45.3% of the state’s vote non-white and with increasing shares of Latino and Asian voters to go along with heavy union influence.

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2020 Review

Official: Joe Biden +23.1% (1,992,889 votes in margin)

Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +17.0% (1,357,045 votes in margin)

In my state-by-state evaluation of the 2020 election, New York continues its rightward trend with Trump as the nominee, but even deducting 635,844 likely fictitious Biden votes, the margin is still in favor of Biden by 17 points; I do, however, have Trump carrying the 57 counties outside New York City by 3.5% as most of the heavy Biden fraud was conducted outside the five boroughs, most notably in Erie, Monroe, Nassau, and Suffolk Counties.  I find it notable that both Manhattan and the Bronx appeared to have standard election trends and outcomes present, meaning they were likely not manipulated to the same degree other notable counties were (an oversight).

Trump managed to lose the five boroughs of New York City (Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx, Staten Island) by 40,000 votes less than he lost it by in 2016 yet managed to lose the state by more than a quarter-million additional votes thanks to the massive manipulation of the Upstate vote.  A major and organic minority working-class shift to Trump is obvious in the data from Queens and Bronx.

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2024 Preview

Prediction: Joe Biden >+15% official, <10% clean

Polling out of New York showing a race in single digits is likely organic, given a Rust Belt-like shift in Upstate New York favoring Trump and a heavy minority working-class shift, especially with Hispanics, moving three of the five boroughs in his direction.  This is also clear from 2022 midterm returns with relatively close races statewide; however, manipulation is so heavy in Upstate New York, when combined with the state’s Automatic Voter Registration flooding population dense areas with ineligible registrations and non-voters, even if Trump managed to clear the 37.3% magic number in the five boroughs, he can still be easily iced out from making needed margins in places he will win.  New York will go to Biden by a safe margin, although Trump may come surprisingly close to 4 million votes and will likely push the race into the teens as a percentage, helping the GOP with competitive U.S. House seats like NY-5.

Previous Installments

Florida

South Carolina

Delaware

Maryland

Washington, D.C.

New Jersey

Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!