Know Your 2024 Electoral College: New Jersey (14 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
NEW JERSEY
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 14
Population (2020 Census): 9,288,994 (+497,100 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 9,300,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Democrat
State House Majority: Democrat
State Senate Majority: Democrat
U.S. House Delegation: 9 Democrats, 3 Republicans
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 51.9%
Latino: 21.6%
Black: 13.6
Other: 12.9%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 9
Last: George H.W. Bush, 1988, +13.6%
Times Democrat: 14
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +15.9%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· New Jersey voted for 9 of 11 Republican presidential nominees between 1948 and 1988 and joined the “blue wall” in 1992, meaning it has an eight-election Democrat streak ongoing. It likely would have backed George H.W. Bush in 1992 narrowly if not for the independent candidacy of H. Ross Perot.
· Elections are highly influenced by urban centers like Newark, Jersey City, and Paterson, which pile up nearly insurmountable Democrat margins and are impacted by election cheating emanating from New York City.
· Republican strength in the state is in the far northwest of the state and specifically in the center of the state, in Ocean County.
· New Jersey’s minority vote is substantial and diverse, with 48.1% of the state’s vote non-white and with increasing shares of Latino and Asian voters to go along with heavy union influence.
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2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +15.9% (725,087 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +5.5% (221,850 votes in margin)
In my state-by-state evaluation of the 2020 election, New Jersey ranks as the seventh closest race, just 5.5% in favor of Biden in a lenient estimate.
No county in New Jersey comes across with a solid low rating and a clean election trend from 2020, and three in the core of the state, Ocean, Burlington, and Monmouth, appear to contain a minimum of 39,595 fraudulent votes (Burlington), up to 51,291 (Monmouth). Trump’s improved performance with minority voters was notable in Newark and northeastern New Jersey region even with substantial election manipulation at hand. President Trump’s gain in votes was far superior to his own gain in 2016, which was sufficient to put New Jersey on a nearly four-point Republican trend, and nearly equal to Barack Obama’s gain in 2008, which Joe Biden far surpassed thanks to Automatic Voter Registration and a coordinated mail-in balloting scheme – impossibly pushing the state two points to the left.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Joe Biden >+10% official, toss-up clean
Trump should solidly clear 2 million votes in New Jersey even with a middling performance, which would put him at the vote level in which Democrat candidates carried New Jersey by double digits from 2008-16. In a legitimate race considering real political trends in play, New Jersey, and not the Rust Belt states, fits as a true toss-up in 2024, having shifted four points in 2016 and likely another 8.6% in 2020 without massive manipulation of the vote to give the appearance of a standard race. It is likely Trump’s internal numbers show this to be the truth, given that he wants to make a play for the state, which I believe is a feint maneuver. While I believe the level of fraud put on the 2020 result will not be replicable and President Trump will naturally bend the state to the right, perhaps within 12 points, New Jersey falls under the protection of mail-in balloting abuse and Automatic Voter Registration (Trump lost 18 of 20 states operating AVR in 2020, 243 electoral votes to 9), and will again award its electors to whomever the Democrats nominate this year.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Seth did you ever write a post about automatic voter registration?