Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Rhode Island (4 Electoral Votes)

Topic: Elections

RHODE ISLAND

Basic Election Facts

2024 Electoral Votes: 4

Population (2020 Census): 1,097,379 (+44,812 since 2010)

Likely Population at 2024 Election: 1,110,000

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Partisanship

Governor Party: Democrat

State House Majority: Democrat

State Senate Majority: Democrat

U.S. House Delegation: 2 Democrats

U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats

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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)

White: 68.7%

Latino: 16.6%

Black: 5.0%

Other: 9.7%

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Presidential History since 1932

Times Republican: 4

Last: Ronald Reagan, 1984, +3.6%

Times Democrat: 19

Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +20.8%

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Presidential Election Characteristics

·      Providence County contributed nearly 53% of Rhode Island’s ballot count in the 2020 election and is the site of most population growth in the state.

·      There is a strong working-class Republican trend present in Rhode Island that has been absent since 1992, when the GOP became associated with trade deals that brought a disparate impact to blue-collar industry; additionally, the opioids crisis has ravaged New England and brought unwanted despair to the state, just as it has in neighboring states.

·      Rhode Island has a smaller but nearly identical political profile to Connecticut, which is dominated by a few urban, Democrat-won counties and looks to have similar margins, both certified and real, in the 2020 election, as well as similar shifts in the 2016 election.

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2020 Review

Official: Joe Biden +20.8% (107,564 votes in margin)

Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +11.8% (54,854 votes in margin)

President Trump carried working-class Kent County and made a major dent in Providence County in 2016, pushing the state 12 points to the right of its 2012 mark, when Mitt Romney was buried by 27.5%.  Despite a nearly equal gain statewide by President Trump in 2020, Rhode Island’s maladministered election gave an outcome more than five points left of the 2016 result, with Kent County artificially flipped back for Biden. Although stoppages in the decisive 2020 states remain vividly in the 2020 lore, Rhode Island stopped its vote count without much fanfare.  80% of precincts in core, urban Providence reflect a low statistical indication of election manipulation, suggesting that back-filled mail-in ballots were planted in the more competitive suburban areas, or even conservative areas, both throughout Providence County and statewide, to drive the state to a blowout margin.

2024 Preview

Prediction: Joe Biden >+15% official, <10% clean

Rhode Island has been a nearly impossible presidential lift for the Republican Party for a century, with just four nominees carrying the state, and none since Ronald Reagan by a slim margin in 1984.  Rhode Island’s strong working-class trend, while authentic, is minimized by an influx of urban voters from Massachusetts.  In a race with an organic trend, Rhode Island would almost certainly close to within 10 points in 2024, with President Trump carrying Kent County by a commanding margin and taking potentially 45% in Providence County; however, Rhode Island operates Automatic Voter Registration, is flooded with ballot harvesters, and will not get campaign attention given that it is worth just four electoral votes.  Look for President Trump to take more than 220,000 votes, and for Biden to be under 300,000 in a closer certified result than seen in 2020 – but one that will be a quick call in favor of Biden upon poll closure.

Previous Installments

Florida

South Carolina

Delaware

Maryland

Washington, D.C.

New Jersey

New York

Connecticut

Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!