Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Vermont (3 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
VERMONT
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 3
Population (2020 Census): 643,085 (+17,344 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 650,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
State House Majority: Democrat
State Senate Majority: Democrat
U.S. House Delegation: 1 Democrat
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 92.2%
Latino: 2.2%
Black: 1.3%
Other: 4.3%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 14
Last: George H.W. Bush, 1988, +3.5%
Times Democrat: 9
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +35.1%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· Vermont, like Maine, was once nearly impenetrably Republican. It backed every Republican presidential nominee from 1856 through 1988 except for Barry Goldwater in 1964, and before the creation of the Republican Party, never backed a Democrat.
· No Republican presidential candidate had ever won the White House without Vermont until George W. Bush did the trick in 2000. No race has been inside 10 points in Vermont since that year’s election.
· Elections are dominated by Chittenden County, which contains metro Burlington and casts nearly three times as many votes as the next largest county.
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2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +35.1% (130,116 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +24.6% (77,246 votes in margin)
After two consecutive Republican shifts (also known as a trend) in the state after Obama’s 2008 high point, Trump wound up thumped substantially worse in Vermont despite a much higher increase in net new votes than he had gained in 2016. Chittenden County, which I’ve assessed at 14,961 likely fraudulent ballots most likely gathered through harvesting ballots produced by the state’s newly implemented Automatic Voter Registration combined with universal mail-in balloting. Of note, Trump carried Essex County, one of 19 bellwether counties nationally that had been accurate in predicting every presidential winner since 1980.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Joe Biden >+30% official, <20% clean
While Vermont would likely find itself inside 20 points, or back to a 2004 disposition, if left to run clean, it is loaded with some of the strangest ideologies in the nation. Left wing gun nuts, Bernie socialists, hardcore right wingers, and the trademark northeastern “liberal Republicans,” such as the current governor, Phil Scott, all jointly inhabit the state. Vermont is overrun with white liberals who don’t seem to care about the state’s awful economic outlook or the opioids crisis that has impacted New England, and the state’s lily-white demographics suggest the people haven’t quite experienced the boon of unmitigated illegal immigration. Automatic Voter Registration and universal mail-in balloting carries the field here. Another few decades may be needed to bring some political parity to the Green Mountain State, which will be called for Biden as soon as polls close.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 14 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!