2024: The Michigan Files
Topic: 2024 Election Materials
Michigan, worth 15 electoral votes, has been designated a decisive state for the November election.
This entry will be constantly updated and serve as a home page for background information, data, research, analysis, articles, and other information relevant to the forthcoming presidential election in Michigan, likely to be between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Bookmark it to keep track of any updates.
Facts and Figures
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 15
Population (2020 Census): 10,077,331 (+193,691 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 10,000,000
Partisanship
Governor Party: Democrat
State House Majority: Democrat
State Senate Majority: Democrat
U.S. House Delegation: 6 Republicans, 7 Democrats
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 73.9%
Latino: 5.5%
Black: 13.7%
Other: 7.9%
Presidential History Since 1932
Times Republican: 10
Last: Donald Trump, 2016, +0.2%
Times Democrat: 13
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +2.6%
Presidential Election Characteristics
Michigan has been politically competitive since the New Deal, and streaky since 1972. It backed all GOP nominees from 1972 through 1988 for President, then six straight Democrats from 1992 through 2012 before backing Donald Trump’s 2016 upset. Michigan’s 2020 election is considered one of the most corrupt in the nation from that year.
Since Trump’s populist realignment of the Midwest, Democrat strength is clustered almost exclusively to the southeast and centered around metro Detroit, and is densely packed into not only Wayne County, but Washtenaw and Oakland Counties as well. Western Michigan contains some of the most traditionally Republican counties in American history, and even competitive counties in the southern and northern portions of the state have become heavily Trump-aligned.
Pennsylvania and Michigan are working-class political cousins that have only disagreed on presidential choice three times since 1932, and not since 1976 when Michigan sided with the homegrown Gerald Ford against Jimmy Carter.
2024 Forecasts
Urgent Action Required if You Want Trump to Win Michigan
Three Key Reasons Michigan Is Easily the Toughest of the Big 3 Blue Collar States for Trump
Crimson - likely to deliver larger Trump margin than 2020
Republican - declining Trump margin in 2020; uncertain trajectory in 2024
Competitive - Trump loss in 2020, but with more than 30% of the vote
Democrat - Trump loss with less than 30% of the vote in 2020
2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +2.6% (154,288 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +8.5% (422,255 votes in margin)
Video overview of Michigan’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Wayne County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Oakland County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Macomb County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Washtenaw County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Literature
Peeling Back the Rotten Michigan Onion
Hawaii Goes to Trump Before Michigan Goes to Biden: An Autopsy
There is, as far as I can tell, no city with a population of more than 100k that is not solid blue, which leads me to the conclusion that urban centers both derange and attract deranged people. The Tower of Babel was not a solecism, it was a signifier.