The Case For a Red Michigan
Very few expected Donald Trump to carry Michigan’s 16 electoral votes in 2016. After all, Barack Obama won the state by 17 points in 2008, making a flip of Michigan two cycles later as likely as Texas going to Joe Biden eight years after Mitt Romney carried it by 17 points in 2012. Nevertheless, Michigan began its rightward lurch during Obama’s first term, during a period that began what I refer to as “the death of the white working-class Democrat.”
The Democrats finally became associated with the anti-industry, anti-worker policies they’ve pushed for years in Obama’s first two years, leading to the emergence of the populist Tea Party, a 2010 midterm disaster for Democrats, and the hemorrhaging of votes for Obama in his reelection campaign nationally, but especially in Michigan, where he lost roughly 303,000 votes and eight percent in victory margin from his first race.
Michigan is not a state with many “horse race” counties, which have a massive influx of transplants that would give reasonable cause for both parties to experience substantial gains; therefore, as the white working class leaves the Democrat Party, that column of votes tends to crater, and the gaps close even faster if those disaffected individuals make a complete reversal and start supporting Republicans.
The chart above shows a close race, within 200,000 votes, between Bush and Kerry. Republicans run stronger in reelection historically in the Industrial Midwest, but that wasn’t enough to flip the state in 2004. Bush’s blunders, combined with the emergence of the charismatic Obama and the pendulum effect that ushers out the incumbent party after eight years, swept the state more than 13 points to the left, as Obama gathered the union, suburban, and disaffected GOP votes, plus a record minority turnout and support share in 2008. This perfect storm dissipated in 2012, as Obama plummeted by 303,000 votes. Unfortunately for Republicans, Mitt Romney’s squishiness didn’t appeal to the disaffected white working-class Democrats (AKA “Reagan Democrats”), and he gained about 70,000 votes, mostly in the suburban areas surrounding Detroit and Grand Rapids. Still, the state trended right by almost eight points, aided mostly by Obama’s fallout.
While the media was lying about the 2016 race, saying a national landslide was looming, Donald Trump was laying the foundation for a shocking upset that isn’t very surprising if you understand political dynamics and trend as forecasting tools. He knew the Democrat bottom drop would continue outside of the metropolitan areas, and converting those lost voters to his side by pushing the trade issue. Sure enough, Clinton lost almost the same number of Democrat voters that Obama did, an enormous sum, and this time, Trump more than doubled up Romney’s flips, adding roughly 165,000 net new votes and flipping the state by 10,000 votes. Ironically, the race was clearly Trump’s on election night, and Detroit was not able to respond to the shocking development with sufficient absentee ballots.
For those expecting a tight race, with all credit to the lying pollsters in the mainstream media, please do yourself a favor and shake off everything you thought you knew about “red states” and “blue states.” “Keshel’s Law” states that a “blue state” experiencing population loss or stagnation, and in motion to “red state” status, will continue said trend until acted upon by an opposing force (being political dynamics causing a reversal of rightward shift). There is nothing in the current political atmosphere that can reverse Michigan’s departure from the Democrat Party organically, without the use of election administration shortcuts, tricks, and assorted fraudulent activity. Michigan’s Democrat strength comes from urban minority voting in the Detroit metro, a smidge of youthful foolishness in the state’s many universities, and the rapidly dwindling support of white working-class Democrats and unions, who are rapidly coming to support America First policy on the issue of trade (put simply, bringing back factories and jobs, and making America’s industry work for America, and not the rest of the world).
Michigan’s election in 2020, if left to run clean, was nothing resembling a close race. In fact, the totals you saw pouring in on November 3, 2020, with Trump ahead by hundreds of thousands of votes, were much more accurate than you may have ever thought. If the state, according to “Keshel’s Law,” trended 17 points to the right in two cycles with a modest gain, followed by a strong GOP gain, combined both times with a huge Democrat fallout, imagine what would happen if the incumbent Republican who turned the state “red” for the first time in 28 years posted a massive gain of net new votes.
Nothing to see in the chart above, of course. That is just Donald J. Trump’s reelection campaign posting a net gain of 370,000 votes from 2016, more than twice as many net new votes as he was able to compile in 2016. The coalition shift in Michigan is bolstered by two-time Obama voters switching loyalties, and cemented by the lack of population increase to support a fledgling party (Democrats). So, if Trump more than doubled his gain of net new votes, and posted an increase in his share of the minority vote, how is there room for Democrats to increase at all, let alone by 535,000 net new votes, as pictured below?
You already know the answers, and the cures to those shortcuts, tricks, and illegal procedures are found in the 10 Points to True Election Integrity, which must be implemented if we are to ever bring justice to our corrupt system of elections.
In my initial estimate of Michigan, which is admittedly lenient, I afforded Biden a tiny gain in votes from Clinton’s total, which is highly unlikely given the destruction of the Democrat coalition in the state. With Trump’s enormous incumbent vote increase, my minimum margin of victory for Trump in a legitimate election is 7.5%. If Biden plunged another 300,000 votes, Trump’s margin of victory would have been 14.4% (56.3% to 41.9%).
I have laid the groundwork for why Michigan is easily a Trump hold in 2020, starting with the trend of Floridaand party registration numbers in Pennsylvania, which correlate to the movement of Michigan, which does not register voters by party and is loaded with non-college voters, Trump’s bread-and-butter demographic. The graphic below shows how the 83 counties in Michigan stack up in terms of trend and political behavior.
Crimson Class (54) – counties won by Romney and won by Trump by a larger margin in 2016, most matching the “Democrat bottom drop, convert to GOP model” described above. Nearly every county in key working class states registering by party and matching this trend in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida are gaining in Republican registration strength, suggesting a wider margin of victory for Trump in 2020, not shortened. These counties never hesitated to wholeheartedly support Trump in his first run.
Republican Class (10) – counties won by Romney and won by Trump in 2016, but with a decreased margin of victory, representing reluctance to support a populist agenda and preference for moderate, suburban-style Republicanism (triggered over mean tweets). These counties have mixed registration trends in the focus states and may trend toward the Democrat depending on how Trump performs in 2020. The most notable in this category is Kent County, which contains metropolitan Grand Rapids.
Trump Flip or Trending Flip (14) – counties lost by Romney and won by Trump, or trending toward a Trump flip in 2020. Counties matching this trend in the focus registration states reflect strong traction toward Republican registration and near certainty for Trump flips in 2020. Trump carried 11 of the 14 in this category in 2016, missing only Marquette, Muskegon, and Genesee Counties.
Competitive Class (2) – counties lost by Romney and Trump, but not by landslide margins. Party registration trends in focus states are mixed. Not likely to become Democrat blowouts and may trend positively for Trump. Kalamazoo and Oakland Counties fall into this category in Michigan.
Democrat Machine (3) – counties typically won by Democrats with more than 60 percent of the vote, often with a crushing margin of popular votes separating the two candidates. Wayne, Washtenaw, and Ingham Counties fall into this category, though the latter may qualify in the “competitive” category in all practicality.
In summary, going into 2020, 68 of 83 counties are expected to be more favorable for Trump than they were in 2016 (Crimson Class and Trump Flip/Trending Flip Class), based on party registration comparables and voter behavior. Trump, as an incumbent Republican in the Industrial Midwest, should be expected to carry all 10 counties once again in the “Republican” Class, likely consolidating lost third-party conservative voters, even if he loses some ground in counties like Kent. With 78 of 83 counties accounted for, only five counties remain as variables.
Kalamazoo – Turned blue in 1992 and never came back. Lost by Trump by 16,000 votes in 2016, and never lost by the GOP by more than 25,000 votes (Obama in 2008) since the county flipped. Manageable margin of defeat.
Oakland – Turned blue in 1996 and never came back. A former staple county of suburban conservatism, and was neck and neck until 2008, when Obama won it by 96,000 votes (14.5%). Trump only lost the county by 54,000 votes in 2016, and the Democrats have declined in votes two consecutive elections since Obama’s 2008 blowout. A slight vote increase should mitigate this county’s Democrat benefit. As a side note, the standard GOP pathway to victory in Michigan (recognizing Trump is not standard GOP) is for the candidate to win Macomb and Monroe Counties by enough that they cancel out Oakland County, and then the rest of the state outvotes Wayne County.
Ingham – State capital and home to Michigan State University, turned blue in 1992 and never came back. Just like Kalamazoo, damage is limited, reaching a peak GOP defeat margin of 47,000 votes (33.2%) in 2008, and declining in raw Democrat votes since 2008. Trump lost the county by 35,000 votes in 2016.
Washtenaw – Democrat stronghold since the 1980s, home to the University of Michigan and a leftist bastion. Swung hard left in 2008 and lost by Trump by record 78,000 votes in 2016. Likely trending Democrat based on composition of voter roll, but a slight increase for Trump will offset gains not likely to reach those seen for Obama (21,000 net new votes in 2008).
Wayne – Cesspool of corruption in Michigan that has declined nearly 300,000 over two decades of census data and is losing voting power. Democrats have lost 141,000 votes since Obama’s first run in 2008, and Trump trended the county nearly nine points more Republican in 2016, making gains of his own outside of urban Detroit. Detroit’s loss of voting power plays a big role in Michigan’s rightward trend.
Trump lost these five counties by 473,000 total votes in 2016. With incremental gains in these counties, combined with the nosedive in Democrat support in their monstrous county, Wayne, it is highly unlikely Trump will lose these counties by more votes than that in 2020. With the rest of the state likely trending heavily for Trump, Michigan is clearly an incumbent hold.
You can read, in detail, what occurred in Michigan from a statistical perspective in my November 2020 affidavitand detailed statistical disparities summary from the same month. The urban areas, though dying, were blown out with mail-in ballot fraud, and the massively Trump trending remainder of Michigan, from the naturally conservative western side to the Upper Peninsula, were artificially shaved to put Detroit in position to do its magic.
Here is the certified results map for Michigan, showing county level margins in what comprised a “154,000 vote victory” for Biden.
Based on my analysis, the below graphic is what a clean election in Michigan is most likely to show:
In this likely map of Michigan, Trump holds Kent, Saginaw, and Leelanau Counties, flips Marquette, Muskegon, and Genesee Counties, and barely loses Oakland and Kalamazoo Counties, while dramatically tightening the Democrat margin in Wayne County.
If you don’t think these results are possible, check out Reagan’s numbers with the crossover voters and how the county results came out in 1984. ElectionFraud20 is another great resource that has compiled many of my analytical pieces on Michigan, including my reasoning as to why Macomb County may be the best county in all of America to prove extensive malfeasance in the 2020 election.
Shame on John James for conceding a third-world “election.”
SK
Passing the word Captain!