2024: The Nevada Files
Topic: 2024 Election Materials
Nevada, worth 6 electoral votes, has been designated a decisive state for the November election.
This entry will be constantly updated and serve as a home page for background information, data, research, analysis, articles, and other information relevant to the forthcoming presidential election in Nevada, likely to be between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Bookmark it to keep track of any updates.
Facts and Figures
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 6
Population (2020 Census): 3,104,614 (+404,063 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 3,250,000
Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
State House Majority: Democrat
State Senate Majority: Democrat
U.S. House Delegation: 3 Democrats, 1 Republican
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 50.6%
Latino: 28.9%
Black: 9.4%
Other: 11.1%
Presidential History Since 1932
Times Republican: 11
Last: George W. Bush, 2004, +2.6%
Times Democrat: 12
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +2.4%
Party Registration Data
· Statewide
2020 Election: D+4.7% (+867,416 Democrat registration lead)
11/1/2024: D+0.5% (+9,020 Democrat registration lead)
Presidential Election Characteristics
Nevada backed 8 of 10 Republican presidential nominees between 1968 and 2004 before joining the “blue wall” in Barack Obama’s 2008 national landslide. It has barely resisted the Trump populist takeover of the GOP in two straight elections, with the last being decided under extremely suspicious circumstances.
Clark and Washoe Counties, home to Las Vegas and Reno, respectively, contribute 7 out of every 8 votes in the state and frequently delay reporting of their vote totals until the other 15 counties, all overwhelmingly Republican, report their own. The Latino vote, which is trending heavily Republican, and the unions play a huge role in determining winners and losers in the Silver State.
Nevada features some of the worst election laws in America, with most every 2020 cheat and shortcut legalized through legislation. It has universal mail-in voting, Automatic Voter Registration, ballot harvesting, and drop box rules that favor Clark and Washoe Counties, and to make matters worse, the Republican governor signed legislation to make it a felony to threaten, coerce, intimidate or harass elections officials, with it being the state’s job of determining what exactly constitutes an offense.
2024 Forecasts
Crimson - likely to deliver larger Trump margin than 2020
Competitive - Trump loss in 2020, but with more than 30% of the vote
2024 County Trend Analysis (Pessimistic Forecast)
2024 Voter Registration Index Forecast
2024 Final Prediction (Trump +2.5%)
2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +2.4% (33,596 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +8.8% (110,711 votes in margin)
Video overview of Nevada’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Clark County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Washoe County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Literature
Beadles at War with Washoe County - Inside the Election Lawsuit From Hell
FYI, a recent positive development, below, however it really comes down to the courage of the individual County Commissioners to not certify questionable elections, and Washoe only has 2 out of 5 Commissioners who are likely to (Andriola did once but quickly reversed). I don't know about Clark County.
"The Nevada Supreme Court just ruled against Democrats by DECLINING to block Election Officials from withholding certification of the results in the event of election fraud. This means if fraud is discovered in the 2024 election, officials can now halt certification until the truth comes out.
The Democrat Secretary of State, Francisco Aguilar, initially filed the lawsuit asking the justices to require the Washoe Board of County Commissioners to certify the June 9 primary election results for two races before August 22, despite the ongoing allegations of fraud they received. He argued that counties don't have the authority to withhold certification and that their vote can only be 'YES' to whatever results they get. Additionally, he said they can't even investigate or determine instances of fraud."
https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/1826004083875909743
The good news is the Dems will is flailing in Arizona and Georgia more good news. The lack of street muscle being allowed to be themselves in Chicago will sap there will later in the fall when they need street muscle. There’s only so far you can get higher thugs just doing day job.