A Captain's Testimony Before the Arizona Senate

Topic: Elections

Last week, I appeared before the Arizona Senate Elections and House Municipal Oversight and Elections Joint Committee, chaired by State Senator Wendy Rogers.  No Democrats assigned to the panel showed up, as the members issued a statement beforehand saying they would not dignify such talk.  In reality, they know they are sabotaging their own people, and don’t want to be held to explain it or account for it.  

I was the second speaker, sandwiched by a series of technical and legal experts, all followed by explosive testimony alleging serious crimes against key members of the Arizona political class.  My commentary on those allegations is not ready for release, as I am waiting to make heads or tails of them based on the constant flow of information since that date.

Arizona State Representative Liz Harris, a real hero in the election integrity world, invited me to the event with very little notice, forcing me to move my schedule around to make the date.  Harris is known for her extensive canvassing work that accompanied the 2021 Maricopa County Audit, and also for having the guts to call for a new election in Maricopa County after she won her own race last November.  They don’t make them like that anymore, folks.  I thought about the importance of such an invitation, the opportunity to get my damning information on the official record, and in turn, pressure the Arizona legislature to pursue election reform.

The Arizona legislature is a train wreck collectively, holding measly single seat Republican majorities in both chambers, and even in the event of successful bill passage, is subject to the illegitimately elected Katie Hobbs for a final signature of approval.  Given that Hobbs presided over her own election while Secretary of State and bent or broke every rule to get where she is today, it is safe to say she won’t be signing a damn thing that will bring about greater transparency in our elections.

I scanned the room as it filled and noticed Adrian Fontes, the dubiously elected Arizona Secretary of State, seated near the back.  I am told he grimaced his way through my presentation and found his way out before I wrapped up.  I began my presentation by introducing myself, and then immediately threw a “curveball” of sorts by delaying my dive into election statistics to focus on Arizona’s recent census numbers right off the bat.

As the graphic above depicts, Arizona’s population grew by just 759,485 (officially) according to the 2020 census, since the previous census in 2010.  That marks the lowest growth in the state since the 1960s; Maricopa County’s numbers echo those, with the mega-county having grown by the lowest amount of net new residents since the 1970s.  These numbers fly in the face of the proclamations echoed by all sides of the political spectrum – “Wow, we are exploding in population!”

Given that population growth drives voter registration, and voter registration drives turnout, and that I’m able to forecast turnout based on very consistent growth to the state for over four decades, the obvious question arises – how in the hell did Maricopa County gush out so many votes in the last three elections if the population growth rate is fizzling?

My position, as stated in the testimony, is that the federal government is pencil-whipping census numbers to prevent the addition of new electors and representatives for red states, prevent losses of the same for blue states, and fundamentally alter the electoral map to disenfranchise MAGA Americans.

Both of these can’t be true – either Arizona’s census number are legitimate, and the explosive growth rates in turnout can’t be justified, confirming the existence of fraudulently run elections, or the election turnout is real and the census numbers are fudged, pointing to its own separate crisis and conspiracy to defraud the people of their appropriate representation.  The panel grimaced while reviewing this data.

I moved into the 2018 midterms, which I believe were the first highly manipulated elections in our country, not the 2020 election.  You can watch the linked video above to see me showing the scratch notes of how I arrived at my estimates, but the 2018 Arizona midterm had 391,692 more votes cast than a “ballpark” forecast would call for, and 295,320 more than an election matching the highest turnout coefficient since 1994 would have.  The 2018 Arizona midterm was the election that pushed Kyrsten Sinema into the U.S. Senate, and more importantly, Katie Hobbs into the Secretary of State’s office, even after Republican Steve Gaynor had been called as the winner on election night.  Now look who is in the Governor’s mansion.

I moved on to 2020, and the curious election in which Donald Trump topped all Republican records in a Republican stronghold only to lose the state for the second time since 1952, and Maricopa County for the first time since 1948 (despite winning Maricopa County in 2016 with fewer votes than Mitt Romney had four years prior, despite population growth in the county).

As depicted above, the Republican streak of dominance since 1952 is impressive.  Only Bob Dole lost Arizona presidentially for the GOP since 1952, and it is clear that Clinton’s incumbent advantage and Ross Perot’s performance in the state brought about Dole’s loss (Perot had nearly cost Bush 41 the state in 1992).  The GOP nominees between 2008-16 parked within a 22,000 vote window of the same exact vote total, yet still, the party held the state.  Donald Trump’s net gain in 2020, 409,285 votes, is a Republican record.  Based on the trend line – do you see a pathway for Joe Biden to win a state that supposedly is slowing in population growth?

Of course you wouldn’t find a pathway for Biden.  Based on the chart above, in 17 elections since 1952, Democrats have never added more than 208,183 votes (2004) from the previous election, and Trump’s total of net new votes far surpasses the Republican record set by Bush 43 in 2004.

If Biden were to add twice as many votes as John Kerry did in 2004, he would still lose the state by roughly 84,000 votes.  Clearly, there is no way Biden can win Arizona against this record-setting Republican incumbent in a Republican stronghold that has slowed in population growth.

Biden’s “gain” doubles Kerry’s, plus another 94,000, which barely squeaks past Trump’s record Republican stockpile of votes.  Also, the total number of net new votes, again, in a state that is supposedly slowing in its rate of population growth, is 304,197 higher than the previous total net new vote boom set in 2004, when the rate of population growth was still zooming according to official documentation.

Allowing for Democrat record gains in Maricopa and Pima Counties, and all counties that show a pattern of Democrat gains, Biden loses the state by a minimum of 11.5% in any real election.  Senator Ken Bennett was not pleased about this statement and peppered me with questions about the trend in the state, which was favorable to Democrats in 2016 after Trump’s vote total was nearly identical to Romney’s and McCain’s.  I explained, in a matter of fact way, that the trend calculation derives from the raw vote totals, and given that Trump’s gains are Republican records in a Republican stronghold, it is obvious the state would not have a “leftward” trend in 2020.

Finally, I discussed the 2022 midterms, still fresh in the minds of all attending the event, and the subject of a continuous series of court challenges now making its way to the Arizona Supreme Court.  2022 has been 142,364 and 254,296 more votes than can reasonably be predicted after arriving at the previously stated, 2020 election likely totals.  That range overcomes the margins of all four key top of the ticket races supposedly won by Democrats – Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, and U.S. Senate.  Blake Masters, candidate for U.S. Senate against Mark Kelly, did everyone a disservice by conceding that race and made Kari Lake, Mark Finchem, and Abraham Hamadeh look like sore losers to some.

I consider the testimony worthwhile and I am glad I went to get this on record for posterity once we remedy the elections crisis.  My testimony was slammed by the left-wing press, including the irrelevant “AZ Data Guru,” a paid propaganda mouthpiece employed by the local press to trickle out garbage results that are delayed, with the vaunted “late early ballot” scapegoated as the reason for the delays in counting.

We reviewed my Ten Points to True Election Integrity in light of the obvious third-world malfeasance present in the Arizona elections system, and I highlighted the clear bloating of Arizona’s voter rolls, which feeds the system of fraud that has been largely built by “Republicans.”

Will the hearing bear fruit?  Likely not, at least in the immediate sense.  But I will tell you that many Arizona Representatives and Senators came to me in private to commend this work, and how obvious it makes it to the masses when laid out over seven decades, and how that sort of analysis overcomes the media narratives about hotly contested and emotional elections.  These officials know the truth.  Collectively, the control of special interests over our political system, combined with gamed election results, prevent real change from occurring, both in the legislative chambers and in our courts.

Still, we must press the fight.  Put things on record.  Take a stand.

“Never let the fear of striking out keep you from playing the game.” – Babe Ruth.