Anatomy of a Blue State
Topic: Elections
Author’s Note: My comprehensive 2024 election analysis outlines the intricacies of every state all the way down to the county level and ranks them relative to one another as to how much manipulation was likely in the presidential race in November, which Donald Trump won.
Red states and blue states are the way they are because of the laws the states have. This piece focuses on how the Trump states look on the books, which largely dictated how they turned out.
I have rated each state in one of four concern grades – Lowest, Marginal, Elevated, and Highest. Those ratings can be found here or within the posts evaluating any individual state or region. Likewise, I have also accounted for eight major demerits:
· Automatic Voter Registration
· Ballot Harvesting – whether permitted by law, or widely practiced
· Excessive Mail-in Voting – whether universal, notable, or no-excuse
· Prolonged Counting – normally due to excessive mail-in voting
· Ranked Choice Voting
· Same Day Voter Registration
· Unique Corruption – arbitrary and understood through extensive research
· No Voter ID
A final consideration was also made as to whether I thought focused manipulation was present in the 2024 results in a given state.
This is how the Harris states shook out with regard to the assessed demerits above (please note, Washington, D.C. will be referred to as a state for the purposes of this analysis):
The four cleanest (or least dirty) states Harris won in 2024, which had two or fewer demerits each and no concentrated indication of election manipulation were:
· Massachusetts
· Rhode Island
· Connecticut
· New Hampshire
The four dirtiest states Harris won and their respective demerits in parenthesis:
· California (8)
· Hawaii (8)
· Colorado (7)
· Washington (7)
Please note that none of the Harris states received a Grade of 1 – Lowest Concern. I agree that all of these states are uniquely problematic, but 2024 shifts do not suggest additional manipulation was applied to that seen in 2020. Three of the four cleanest states listed here operate Automatic Voter Registration, which disqualifies any consideration for the lowest grade, and New Hampshire, which does not, was rated at a Grade of 2 – Marginal Concern, for lack of voter ID in the 2024 election and because its same day voter registration operation has been known to alter statewide results after being tainted by out-of-state residents registering to vote on Election Day.
The Demerits Pound for Pound:
Automatic Voter Registration
19 of 20 (95%) Harris states operate automatic voter registration, a figure that includes Washington, D.C., as if it were a state. The only state without Automatic Voter Registration she won is New Hampshire. You can see the nationwide split in the graphic below:
Ballot Harvesting
16 of 20 (80.0%) Harris states (including Washington, D.C.) permit and/or practice ballot harvesting.
Excessive Mail-In Voting
6 of 20 (30.0%) Harris states (including Washington, D.C.) were marked for excessive mail-in voting and are all universal mail-in voting states in which every registrant receives a mail-in ballot. Nevada and Utah are the only universal mail-in voting states won by Trump.
Prolonged Counting
7 of 20 (35.0%) Harris states (including Washington, D.C.) practice prolonged counting, with none more notable than California, which flipped two U.S. House seats after a month of counting.
Ranked Choice Voting
Maine is the only state won by Harris to operate Ranked Choice Voting, which was shot down in several other states in the 2024 election. Alaska is the only Ranked Choice Voting state won by Trump.
Same Day Voter Registration
In 14 of 20 (70.0%) Harris states (including Washington, D.C.), same day voter registration is authorized. It is notably problematic in New Hampshire, which has failed to close loopholes that alter the state’s normally tight margins.
Unique Corruption
I tagged 7 of 20 (35.0%) Harris states (including Washington, D.C.) for the arbitrary designation of unique corruption, which ranges from Colorado’s leakage of electronic passwords to Hawaii’s counterfeit mail balloting scam and beyond.
No Voter ID
12 of 20 (60.0%) Harris states (including Washington, D.C.) lacked any Voter ID requirements in the 2024 election. Some states recorded as having voter ID have only marginal precautions on the books.
2024 Election Manipulation
This is my assessment of concentrated election manipulation in the 2024 race, whether assessed or documented. 8 of 20 (40.0%) states won by Harris (including Washington, D.C.) appear to contain noticeable manipulation that, in some cases, appears to have decided close U.S. House races.
Conclusion
Harris states overwhelmingly have:
· Automatic Voter Registration
· Ballot Harvesting
· Universal Mail-In Voting
· No Voter ID
The foundation of election manipulation is found in voter registration, which is why blue states have rushed to entrench Automatic Voter Registration, expand mail-in balloting, permit ballot harvesting, and preside over illogical policies, such as prohibiting voter ID enforcement that most counties in their states would overwhelmingly support. Is the blue wall real at all?
With 90 demerits assessed over 20 Harris states (including Washington, D.C.), the Harris states average 4.5 demerits per state.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.