How Fox News Set "The Big Lie" in Motion

Topic: Elections

In yesterday’s article, I demonstrated how the same fundamentals used to predict the 2016 election showed that Donald Trump, despite weaponized mainstream media “polling,” was on pace to win reelection comfortably.  Just as the media knew a double-digit Clinton win was not possible in 2016, they also knew that trends, indicators, bellwethers, and predictors would also align to show Trump as the inevitable victor of a clean 2020 election.

To get the 2020 results “over,” a relatively flat performance from Trump, meaning a minimal gain in votes, would be required with excellent framing, much like you see with baseball’s best catchers turning narrow balls into called strikes with expert mitt placement for a gullible umpire.  The problem for the media is that Trump turned in at least 74 million votes, making the resulting vote totals for Biden even more historic than Barack Obama’s 2008 records, which came against a curmudgeon of a Republican candidate who declined in votes received all across the nation from the Bush totals of 2004.

The media was, and remains, a critical piece in attempting to hold together any semblance of 2020’s election being free and fair.  I chide “conservatives” constantly for their unending allegiance to Fox News, which probably deserves even more blame than corrupt “polling” outlets for sealing the deal.  It was their premature call of Arizona that put in motion the bold actions that vanquished GOP margins in the Industrial Midwest and other states.

I had laid the framework just as I did in 2016, and even bet over $12,000 of my own money on PredictIt because I was so confident of the trajectory of all swing states.  With each state or electoral district (Maine and Nebraska have split electoral votes, and Washington, D.C. has three) having its own unique political trends, the baseline for even the worst Trump performance was 204 electoral votes, and that included the electors of Georgia, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa.  Yes, the same Georgia Trump hardly campaigned in, that was at 98 percent certainty to go to Trump according to the New York Times election night tracker.

For the balance of the article, I will discuss the graphic below to outline what was happening in real-time as the election was ripped away over the first half of November.

From the floor of 204 electoral votes, North Carolina appeared to be the easiest Trump “battleground” state to hold.  It moved four percent in favor of Republican registration in Trump’s term, after a similar move progressed it nearly two points more Republican in final results for Trump in 2016.  It was a guaranteed hold, getting him to 219 electoral votes.  Even with an extended period to count votes, and hundreds of thousands of “curious” Democrat votes, Trump held the state, and it became apparent on election night that it would not budge from his column.  In fact, I recommended early on that the Trump team, while still in the White House, audit North Carolina in order to put skin in the game.

From there, Florida’s 29 electoral votes went easily to Trump, with a massive Latino shift negating the Democrat strength in South Florida.  It was easily predictable with a heavy GOP registration shift and Florida’s strength for incumbents.  Florida takes Trump to 248 electoral votes.  It was never in question, which shows how stupid it is that the media was forecasting massive Biden electoral totals, even in the 400s in some cases.

I had Arizona as potentially the toughest of the three needed to put Trump on the putting green.  It had a slight shift in favor of Democrat registration (our recent work is revealing fraudulent party registrations across the country to deceive potential forecasters as to the true nature of state political trends) after a 3.8% margin of Trump victory in 2016, but I anticipated he would consolidate the lost third-party “conservative” voters in Maricopa County, which he did in record numbers.  Carrying Arizona would put Trump at 259 electoral votes, meaning Pennsylvania or Michigan would win the election for Trump on election night, with Wisconsin guaranteeing at least a 269-269 tie.

Fox News did the honors on Arizona, and had to.  They hit the fire alarm and called the state with hardly any of the vote reported.  With most Trump supporters undoubtedly watching Fox News coverage, their call of Arizona defused any expectation of the election being decided that evening, especially with the preemptive announcement that vote counts would be delayed in heavy mail-in states, such as those Trump needed to hold down for the win.

I stayed up a little while longer after the call of Arizona.  I was still astonished at how far ahead Trump was in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  I knew that the fundamentals had him holding all three, but the decline in black turnout, and the continued crossover of former Democrats in these states that are losing population produced massive impending blowouts.

Until they didn’t.  I couldn’t sleep, and got up to answer nature’s call at about 3:45 a.m.  Richard Baris pointed out on Twitter that the steal was beginning in Wisconsin and Michigan, and would be completed by the time most Americans woke up for work on November 4.  Over the course of several days, and many “found” ballots in key locations, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada fell.  Arizona continued its count for over a week before it was finalized. 

I refer to the effort to defraud Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Arizona, and Georgia as the “Sun Belt Steal.”  Trump likely carried them by 7, 6, 13, 6, and 6 points, respectively, at minimum.  Trump ran so far ahead of estimates in South Florida, that the Sunshine State had to be cut loose, lest the final result be unbelievable.  Texas was also a prime target for the steal, with media narratives setting up for an “upset,” but Trump performed so well with working class Latinos, they had to let it go as well.  Georgia was easier to pull in than North Carolina, and even worth one extra electoral vote, so it was targeted for the Biden column, completely reversing the New York Times needle.  Of note, a call of Alaska was held for days, and I believe it was the putter in the golf bag in case three little electoral votes were needed in a pinch.

You could give Trump Arizona and Georgia today, and he would have just 259 electoral votes; however, if his count was 259 in the days after the election, the entire nation would have demanded full transparency in Pennsylvania and Michigan.  There had to exist a buffer to keep Trump well below 270, giving the perception that election integrity advocates are sore losers and not realistic in their arguments.  Imagine the utter silliness of the election integrity movement if Florida, Texas, and North Carolina would not have escaped the scheme – our activists would be flailing to convince a nation that the candidate underneath a 388-150 electoral college defeat was the rightful winner.

Now we have completed the journey back in time so we can plot our steps for the future in this two-front war. The person in the mirror is the one who holds responsibility for educating others and pursuing positive change.

SK