Irrefutable Point III: The Primary Model Shows a Trump Landslide
I do not mince words when it comes to my opinion of media “polling.” Polling is a useful tool for campaigns who need to understand regional dynamics in a race, but when used by the media, the purpose is twofold. The first purpose is to suppress turnout of voters who are likely to support forbidden candidates who hold certain ideologies or positions (currently, America First candidates), and the second is to justify final election outcomes.
Those in media are aware that it is uncommon for a party to hold the White House for more than eight years. In fact, since World War II ended, a party has won three consecutive terms in the White House just once (Republicans in the 1980s). This didn’t stop them from trying to “scare the pot” in 2016, declaring boldly that Hillary Clinton would win a national blowout, despite serious indicators that Trump would break down the “blue wall.”
Clarity can be hard to come by, especially in a day and age in which the media seek to control the electorate with information operations. That is why I analyze trends, indicators, bellwethers, and predictors. They are consistent, in many cases for more than a century, and do not require cryptic inputs and outputs to decipher. I stumped upon The Primary Model, devised by Dr. Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, in 2020, and the work immediately resonated with my well-established methodology.