Kamalamania is Fake and I Use North Carolina's Data to Prove It

Topic: Elections

What do you do to get a read on election trajectories when the media lie about everything and create false narratives and polling to prop up otherwise unelectable political candidates?  You analyze voter registration data.  If you’re new to that genre of analysis, have a look at my exposé on Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania – a textbook case, in my opinion.  In case you’re wondering, the dominant or emerging party registration in a county shifts in the short term with how a county views the figurehead of a typical party and may take decades to wear off fully if a state is changing its stripes.  Change is noticed much faster at the county level.  What I mean by this is that I can see Trump momentum in Pennsylvania’s data as the legacy Democrat registration continues to tick right toward “zero,” as has been the case since 2009.

I have been tracking registrations in Maricopa County, Arizona, daily since mid-June and it has been Republican, Republican, Republican – up until this past week, and I am beginning to express concern over the sudden leftward shift in the overall index (currently +6.6% Republican) in the county.  I am concerned registration stuffing may be occurring, but a number of these New Democrat “active” registrations are also owed to the ongoing primary and the new signups for it, and inactive voters being shifted to active if they show up to vote.  I am highly doubtful there is a legitimate surge in Democrat registrations simply because the party has stood up Kamala Harris as its presumptive nominee.

One state that is key for this year’s race is North Carolina.  I have it in my “leaners” category for analysis and had it slated for Trump at a cautious 4-6% estimate against Joe Biden.  All indicators are that it is the only “red state” Democrats are taking a shot at, and if they steal it, it will cripple Trump’s chances of winning the whole thing.  Holding it puts Trump near the putting green and just Georgia plus Pennsylvania away from victory.  Off the top of my head, I would expect him to be even stronger against Harris, but I will leave that for later.  Republicans have been eating away the Democrat voter registration advantage that has existed since the state was part of the old “Solid South” decades ago, and the overall number has been more favorable for the GOP nominees since 2012, when Mitt Romney flipped the state back from Barack Obama’s 2008 hand, albeit narrowly.  I can spot tons of ballot stuffing in 2020 thanks to this indicator being totally swamped despite a humongous Trump vote gain, and as a result, he barely held a state he should have won with ease (greater than his 2016 margin of 3.7%).

Just as Maricopa County surged for Trump for over a week after the shooting (and conveniently right up until Harris came front and center), North Carolina did, too (the whole state).  For the week of July 13 through July 20, Republicans made up a gap of 2,868 net registrations (a loss of 1,196 Democrat, gain of 1,672 Republican).  The timing of that data set lines up perfectly with how to gage Harris’s early impact given that we can tell North Carolina’s registration data is sensitive and reacts quickly to current events.  Today, the State Board of Elections released the weekly registration data.

Let’s start with the state at large, with its 100 counties.

NORTH CAROLINA

July 20

DEM 2,400,441 (31.72%)

REP 2,264,487 (29.92%)

TOTAL 7,567,009 (includes Democrat, Republican, and non-affiliated or other party voters)

ADVANTAGE D+1.80%, +135,954

July 27

DEM 2,400,882 (31.70%)

REP 2,266,564 (29.92%)

TOTAL 7,573,541

ADVANTAGE D+1.78%, +134,318

Republicans ate up 1,636 more out of the rapidly narrowing Democrat registration advantage, which sat at D+5.3%, +391,414 on November 3, 2020 (which means Democrats currently have to work with an advantage more than 200,000 lower than it was in 2020 to get the same number of votes, and then some).  To Harris’s credit, Democrats picked up 441 net new registrations from the week prior, the first uptick of any size I’ve noticed since I’ve been checking for the past few months; however, the GOP net gain was 2,077, or a rate of 4.7 to 1 over the Democrats.

How about we check the two monster counties that Democrats need massive margins in – Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte)?  Harris’s only hope for stealing the state is to have the urban vote go nuts and dent the rural vote, which means keeping a Southern share of the black vote (90%), which is all but impossible given current indicators and the fact that Joe Biden did better with them than Harris does.

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WAKE COUNTY

July 20

DEM 323,975 (40.24%)

REP 157,809 (19.60%)

TOTAL 805,167

ADVANTAGE D+20.64%, +166,166

July 27

DEM 324,074 (40.24%)

REP 157,845 (19.60%)

TOTAL 805,381

ADVANTAGE D+20.64%, +166,229

Biden’s bloated margin in Wake County was +167,139, and this isn’t gonna cut it.  Harris gets a drip of 63 registrations in her favor under the overall advantage, but if I drag the decimals out further, the county is less Democrat than it was on July 20 as a percentage.  Not exactly what I would call a home run.

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MECKLENBURG COUNTY

July 20

DEM 286,814 (34.25%)

REP 177,546 (21.20%)

TOTAL 837,349

ADVANTAGE D+13.05%, +109,268

July 27

DEM 286,967 (34.25%)

REP 177,646 (21.20%)

TOTAL 837,850

ADVANTAGE D+13.05%, +109,321

Mecklenburg’s change is almost a carbon copy of Wake’s – a pickup of 53 net Democrat registration in the advantage and factoring in decimals and the disposition of non-partisans on the rolls, the slightest of rightward shifts in registration.  Kamalamania didn’t move the needle in Charlotte, either.

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Conclusion

If Democrats can’t get the job done in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties statewide, they can’t get it done at all. Weekly updates consistently show 95 or more of North Carolina’s 100 counties on a rightward registration shift (which if you read the Westmoreland article, suggests the trajectory of the next presidential election more accurately than any other indicator).  If Democrats picked up 252 net new registrations in Wake and Mecklenburg last week, and the GOP cobbled up 136, that means the other 98 counties went (drumroll, please):

DEM 189

REP 1,941

Or… 10.3 to 1.

Harris’s sudden emergence and rebranding efforts didn’t make a dent in the two counties that matter most to Democrat statewide hopes, didn’t create a surge in the rural or urban black vote, didn’t alter the trajectory of the suburban moderate counties surrounding Charlotte and Raleigh she needs to coax over to her side, and most importantly, doesn’t highlight that there are those of us out here who actually know what the hell we are talking about, and don’t need to be taught how to think by the media.

Kamalamania is as fraudulent as Harris’s own Vice Presidency.