Lower Rockies - 2024 Election Compendium

Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

Lower Rockies 2024 Presidential Election Review

Author’s Note: All other election reviews can be found here.

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This portion of the 2024 Election Compendium focuses on two states in a region I am referring to as the “Lower Rockies” – Colorado and Utah.

Outcomes

Colorado Harris +11.0%

Utah Trump +21.6%

My Predictions

Colorado Harris by minimum of 10.0%

Utah Trump by minimum of 25.0%

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Preface

Both Colorado and Utah have undergone major political transformations since they were both won by George W. Bush in his 2004 reelection bid. Colorado has completed flipped into a Democrat stronghold, not only presidentially and for U.S. Senate races, but in statewide politics, with Democrats holding a commanding legislative majority that is used to pass election laws necessary to keep the state blue and dominated by population-dense areas. Utah remains firmly Republican but is no longer even close to the reddest state as it was for Bush, when he won it by 45.5%.

Many of these changes are organic and caused by the mass exodus of Californians to Denver and Salt Lake City, driving urbanization and shifting politics toward environmentalism and investment in big city infrastructure rather than blue collar economics. In Utah, the Mormon Church has thrown in with the politics of bureaucrats like Mitt Romney and foolishly opposed the reforms proposed by populist leaders who tell it like it is, which has led to lower-than-usual presidential margins in the past three cycles for Trump, even though massive GOP margins remain for statewide candidates who embrace feckless business-as-usual Republican politics, such as the newly elected Senate quisling, John Curtis. Most importantly, these states have dwindled as Republican strongholds because they have allowed some of the worst election laws ever to find their way into the books, choosing convenience over security and setting poor precedents that are floated as “industry standard” to the rest of the country.

Both states register voters by party, and readers may be surprised to learn that Colorado is the only state in the union that registers voters by party to have shifted toward Democrats (and just barely) by registration since 2020:

· Colorado from D+2.69% in 2020 to D+2.74% in 2024

· Utah from R+36.5% in 2020 to R+38.4% in 2024

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Analysis

COLORADO

· 38 of 64 counties (59.4%) in Colorado shifted to the Democrat left since 2020. Adams and Denver County in the Denver metro area, plus Boulder County, shifted slightly rightward; however, most of the county shifts to the left are in heavily Republican counties that are now being diluted by the practice of Automatic Voter Registration, which floods the voter rolls with non-affiliated registrants and thereby causes the advantage of the dominant party to dwindle, often suggesting an artificial transformation. Here is the county breakdown by registration change since 2020:

· Despite the leftward drift of the state, 34 of 64 counties shifted Republican by percentage margin from 2020. The party registration index shifts accurately predicted the swings of 46 of 64 (71.9%) counties statewide:

· Colorado statewide politics have been controlled by metro Denver, to include Boulder, since 2008. Only Douglas County within the metro area remains Republican-won, whereas Bush carried Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties in his 2004 win. See margins from metro Denver since 2016 below:

· GOP statewide races have been further complicated by Democrats gaining ground outside metro Denver (through both organic and manipulative means). Most notably, Republicans are losing ground in El Paso County, which contains Colorado Springs and the surrounding metro area. That county has backed all but one GOP presidential nominee since 1940 (1964), and while Trump won it by 37,336 in 2024, Bush won it by 83,713 when he was the last GOP nominee to carry Colorado. Democrats are also making gains in affluent white counties in the western half of the state, while Republicans are maxed out in the eastern half:

· Trump flipped Pueblo County, which also backed him in 2016, and continued to make major inroads with the Hispanic working-class in southern Colorado.

· Harris lagged Biden by 76,193 ballots in Colorado, including by 34,659 in Denver County, and 22,882 in Arapahoe County, which was dealing with (and still is) Venezuelan gangs in the run-up to the 2024 election. That is almost certainly the reason as to why Arapahoe County shifted 4.6% more Republican, despite the registration index suggesting a third straight leftward move.

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UTAH