My 2024 Arizona 15 County Trend Forecast

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

Situation

Arizona remains ground zero for America’s elections crisis.  It was where the presidential election was forced to a standstill on November 3, 2020, with a shocking call of America’s most reliably Republican presidential state since 1952 for Joe Biden, who didn’t campaign there, and who was about to be up against a record Republican vote gain in the state by Donald Trump, in a state that almost always votes for the Republican nominee (all but once since 1952), with no losses of Maricopa County since 1948.

The state is also the subject of a new narrative that it is Republican voters corrupting voter rolls, which I think may serve a larger purpose if Trump knocks off Harris as all traditional indicators suggest is likely without major intervention and new tactics.  All 15 counties in the state have a Republican Party registration shift underway from 2020, and the voter roll itself is not yet as large as it was in 2020, which further underscores the point that the Grand Canyon State’s 2020 race was corrupt from the get-go and one of the greatest embarrassments in the history of the Western world.

Before you get started, familiarize yourself with my county classification model.  Everything you need to know about what follows is contained in that free article.  And yes, this model accounts for the current state of electoral maladministration that must be overcome if Trump is to eke out a win, let alone one big enough to provide coattails to the rest of the GOP ticket, including Kari Lake for U.S. Senate and the slim legislative majority of both chambers, which is all that stands between Arizonans and the commencement of full Californication.

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Crimson Counties (10)

These 10 counties are certain to work to the benefit and improvement of Trump from 2020, but unfortunately are on pace to cast only about 21% of the statewide vote according to this model.  The most critical counties for driving up margin are Mohave, Pinal, and Yavapai, which stand to net Trump a gain of 31,900 from the previous race – a number that is lower than what is likely since Harris isn’t likely to make gains as strong as Biden’s inflated count, if she gains at all - a big stretch considering sagging Democrat registrations in them.  Democrats will have substantial interest in inflating ballot counts in deep red counties Harris will lose handily so Pima and Maricopa Counties can do less heavy lifting and are less likely to draw further scrutiny.

Adjusting Harris up where appropriate, I still find Trump gaining roughly 39,502 in margin in these 10 counties, nearly four times the margin between the two candidates statewide in 2020.  If a major Latino working-class shift occurs in Arizona, Cochise and Yuma Counties will provide much-welcome support far beyond that expressed in this trend analysis.  Navajo County also stands to be a major source of margin gain, but only if ballot harvesting can be controlled in the northernmost precincts on the Navajo Nation Reservation.

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Competitive Counties (5)