My 2024 Georgia 159 County Trend Forecast

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

Situation

Larry Schweikart, my friend, colleague, and fellow co-anchor of Decision USA for this coming Election Night, will be reaching out today to fight me over this forecast.  Larry feels very confident Donald Trump is on his way to a decisive win in Georgia, which is an assessment I would agree with in a pre-2018 elections world.  I will review some optimistic happenings near the end of this article, but as things stand now, Georgia may be one of the toughest out of the seven decisive states thanks to the growth and trend of the most populous urban and suburban counties, and the impacts of modern urban election rigging.  Remember, this forecast resembles a Military Intelligence Most Dangerous Course of Action forecast.

I have Trump with a likely 7.5% margin of victory for the 2020 race in Georgia without the massive cheating, which happens to be nearly identical to where the state stood at the end of Election Night before the massive absentee haul started being counted.  The next day, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger happened to lose count of 300,000 votes, and it wasn’t long until Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, once thought a layup, were gone.  What made it all possible was Automatic Voter Registration combined with a mail-in heavy environment that destroyed the integrity of all elections, including the races for the two U.S. Senate seats that were forced into runoffs two months later and subsequently lost to the Democrats.

Before you get started, familiarize yourself with my county classification model.  Everything you need to know about what follows is contained in that free article.  And yes, this forecast accounts for the presence and likelihood of massive election rigging.

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Crimson Counties (106)

Exactly two-thirds of Georgia’s counties are heavily Trump-MAGA Crimson counties that Trump will win by far more than a half-million margin combined.  That’s the good news.  The trouble with Georgia’s Crimson counties is that they are largely maxed out, with only a relative handful poised to give Trump a gain of more than 1,000 in margin from 2020.  Most of these are rural or exurban white counties, but they also include some that were almost always Democrat-won counties before Trump flipped them in 2016 or 2020 with a better (or lower turnout) rural black showing and a booming white turnout.

As has been the standard for my previous studies, I expect Biden’s 2020 total to be Harris’s absolute max in almost all of these, and it is likely with a better black turnout and continued trending that Harris will lose votes from 2020, especially now that mail-in voting is way down.  Democrats are all in on Atlanta and probably won’t do much to get in the way in these counties, which I’m pegging for a modest Trump margin gain of only 75,580.

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Republican Counties (23)