New Hampshire - Final 2024 Prediction

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

November 4, 2024

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My eighth and last final prediction for the eight battleground states of 2024 is for New Hampshire.

I was laughed at in July for suggesting voter registration figures showed New Hampshire as a playable state for Trump, especially after it backed so far away from him in 2020.  The campaign wouldn’t be wasting time pouring resources and time into the Granite State if they didn’t think there was a shot, and if they can secure it, it relieves us of the doomsday scenario in which Trump wins North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada and gets stuck at 268 electoral votes.

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Party Registration

2020 – D+1.3% (D+14,663)

2024 – R+4.3% (R+38,415)

Net Shift – R+5.6% (R+53,078)

Miraculously, as always seems to be the case with voter roll purges, it was the Democrat Party that took it on the chin.  New Hampshire, the most Republican of all New England states, had a Democrat registration advantage in a presidential election four years ago for the first time in its history, but hasn’t backed a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2000.  The state was the only Bush 2000 state that switched to John Kerry in 2004, and this is largely believed to have been a response to the pursuit of the Iraq War.

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What Harris Must Do to Win

Despite the solid GOP registration advantage, New Hampshire always votes to the left of it (and it did when the Democrats held it in 2020).  I have documented that in the party registration analysis, which actually allows room for a tilt Trump win of 0.6% if he sticks to the average of 33,720 left of registration.  That means Harris, out of time for campaigning, needs to hope this trend holds up and that Haley-loving weakling Republicans spurn Trump in great enough numbers to tilt the state to her.  There are a lot of rural white liberals who love guns but hate Trump she can rely on, but she doesn’t have a ceiling of victory much higher than 10,000 votes in my estimation.

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What Trump Must Do to Win