New Jersey was not even really contested by the Trump campaign this cycle- the Wildwood Rally not excepting. That being the case, southern Jersey, because of its close proximity to the Philadelphia market definitely had a very Trumpy lean to it. I think NY suburb counties will move as NYC swings- meaning significant gains in the City will also show up in Jersey as well.
You had NJ at 5-6 points to Biden in 2020. Do you think NJ would have been a deadheat in 2024 with no cheating? I assume your comments about less cheating in 2024 does not preclude the likelihood of some lesser, latent level of cheating?
Looking forward to your analysis of Pennsylvania, especially Montgomery County. What can we do here?
New Jersey was not even really contested by the Trump campaign this cycle- the Wildwood Rally not excepting. That being the case, southern Jersey, because of its close proximity to the Philadelphia market definitely had a very Trumpy lean to it. I think NY suburb counties will move as NYC swings- meaning significant gains in the City will also show up in Jersey as well.
You had NJ at 5-6 points to Biden in 2020. Do you think NJ would have been a deadheat in 2024 with no cheating? I assume your comments about less cheating in 2024 does not preclude the likelihood of some lesser, latent level of cheating?
They're all estimates, but I pegged the correct drift of the state very closely. NY certified at D+12.6% and I put it at Biden +17 for 2020.