New York - 2024 Election Compendium

Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

New York 2024 Presidential Election Review

Author’s Note: All 2024 Election Reviews can be found here.

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Outcome

Harris +12.6% (+1,040,296)

My Prediction

Harris by minimum of 10.0%

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Preface

Much has changed since New York was a battleground state for most of the second half of the 20^th century. For nearly three decades, the state has been an afterthought for Republican presidential candidates. It was won by Ronald Reagan handily in 1984, lost narrowly by George H.W. Bush in 1988, and once the latter lost it bigly as part of a national landslide defeat, it has been written off ever since – handing the Democrats, by itself, more than a tenth of the electoral votes needed to secure the White House.

In that span of time, most of the standard Democrat election rules were drafted and signed into law, which are intended to ensure that the Empire State’s 28 electoral votes never decide to jump ship in the event of a major working-class shift, which is now well underway.

New York began to show a slight populist lean in Trump’s first run, moving from a 28.2% Democrat win (Obama) in 2012, to just 22.6% in 2016. Despite Trump’s strong gain in 2020, he lost the state that year by 23.1% in what appears to be a contest overwhelmed, especially in the five boroughs of New York City, by all the 2020 COVID-related tricks, tactics, techniques, and shortcuts in play, especially the expanded use of mail-in balloting. In the last four years, however, the state suggested it would continue its rightward movement by displaying a Republican Party registration shift in 52 out of its 62 counties, including 4 of 5 boroughs of New York City:

The party registration numbers, along with those present in adjacent New Jersey and Pennsylvania, suggested a substantial working-class shift rightward – not only with the white-working class, but extending to New York’s large non-white population (45.3%).

Analysis

· Party registration shifts since 2020 (52 counties shifted toward the GOP) suggested Trump would improve in all but 10 counties statewide. The party registration indicator went 55 for 62 in New York, with Trump improving in all 52 counties shifting right by registration, losing ground in 3 shifting Democrat by registration, and gaining in 7 counties shifting Democrat by registration (the misses). Trump improved in 59 of New York’s 62 counties, regressing slightly in Yates, Hamilton, and Tompkins Counties, which were accurately identified by the party registration indicator as likely left-movers:

· Trump flipped 3 counties – Clinton County, in the far northeastern corner of the state, Rockland County in the southeast, and Nassau County on Long Island.

· New York’s rightward shift was in line with consistently tight polling groupings showing a race substantially closer than the two previous Trump runs. In fact, New York stood as a canary in the coal mine, as I predicted, for the rightward movement of the key battleground states that gave Trump the national election win, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin:

· Any future statewide Republican victories in New York will require continued substantial improvement in the boroughs of New York City, which make up 5 of the state’s 62 counties, or roughly one-third of the statewide vote. Trump cut 34.7% of the Democrat presidential margin in New York City this cycle, or 565,571 votes net, but the Democrat margin there still provides an insurmountable advantage, with Richmond County (Staten Island) the only borough not upside down:

· Trump managed to win the collective vote of the 57 counties outside of New York City, of which most are contained in the region known as Upstate New York, swinging 387,022 votes in margin from 2020.