12 Comments

Watching nervously from the UK. We will send our sons to die along with yours in the next pointless war, hence why it matters to us that Trump is elected and not Kamala and her new chickenhawk bestie. Fingers and toes crossed for you.

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Not believing any pollster that has Harris +1 in NC.

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I don’t see anyone out there, providing the guidance that you do with the precision and insight that you present. Great job.

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Just signed up as a paying subscriber. Your work here and on X has been fantastic.

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Nov 2Edited

I am a little confused about these forecasts....this is the forecast that prices in election fraud? How do we even know how much fraud there is going to be? If it's the same amount as 2020, I don't think she has a chance to win the electoral college. If it's twice as much, then I think it's 50/50. What is it looking like so far?

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How can you forecast fraud? Election fraud is a lot harder now that four years ago for many reasons. Even so, hard to see a scenario where they can cheat and offset a margin of 5%.

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You just answered my question. My question was what percentage would it be, approximately. My guess is that was at least 5%. I think he won VA, MN, NH, NM, and NJ.

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What's also interesting is that Trump's total votes fell as well. Were those from Never Trumpers who abstained?

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North Carolina is a really difficult state to poll. Only Wisconsin may be harder to poll. Also like Wisconsin, it tends to vote to the right of its polling.

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Thank you.

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I was just in Raleigh and drove around a bit. I saw a few Harris signs, but not many.

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The crystal ball 🔮 is getting clearer....

In an explainable way.

Thank you Capt. Seth

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