Practically Every Minority Group is Moving Toward Trump: Here is Proof

Topic: Elections

In April, I profiled six key states that give election forecasters a true look at the trajectory of the 2024 election by tracking voter registration by party.  These states – Arizona, Nevada, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania – all point to a Trumpian landslide if not for the chronic and persistent condition I’ve come to describe as electile dysfunction:

·      When you have difficulty maintaining an election

·      When your election lasts for longer than four days

·      A sudden, severe, and noticeable loss of interest in voting

·      Premature inauguration, in the most severe cases

It has been no secret that President Trump is expanding his support with non-white voters to levels not seen for a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1960, and later in 1972 (Nixon lost his first bid in 1960 thanks to Chicago’s election manipulation).  Anecdotal evidence of this is easy to come by – just check out the film from any Trump rally or stand in line at one and see the faces.  The days of Romney-Ryan are long gone, and this time we are appealing to traditional Democrats and non-whites by fielding more candidates, like Trump, who fix problems free of labeling them by ideology.

Why not quantify this shift by reviewing party registration?

This will be an imperfect exercise, because in most cases, demographic data is not tracked by the state in question.  The assessments will be made on the total shift in registration, which will provide a broad-brush assessment and potential for correlation.

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BLACK VOTERS

Sample County

Edgecombe County, North Carolina

Why?

Edgecombe County, in the state’s northeast region, is the third-blackest county by percentage (57.8%) of the population in North Carolina, narrowly trailing Bertie and Hertford.  I chose it because it is the only one of that trio with more than 14,000 registered voters (35,801 at the 2020 election), so I’m working with a meaningful sample size.  Substantial population decline recorded in 2020 U.S. census.

Characteristics

·      Not won by GOP presidential nominee since 1972.

·      High point - Obama +36.2% (+9,764 margin) in 2012, county was D+59.3% (59.3% more Democrats than Republicans – 29,839 D:6,184 R out of 39,904 registered).

·      Shift 2016 – Clinton +32.0% (+7,963 margin), county was D+56.0% - 27,572 D:6,257 R out of 38,732 registered).

·      Trend 2020 - Biden +27.0% (+6,883 margin), county was D+47.2% - 23,402 D:6,502 R out of 35,801 registered).

Now what?

Edgecombe continues a Republican registration trend, now at D+39.96% - almost 20 points less Democrat than it was in 2012; Republicans have added 140 net new registrations since 2020 (and major registration surges are only just now underway for the campaign), and Democrats are down 3,087, meaning there are now just 20,315 registered Democrats in the county (9,524 less than 2012) from which to pull a steadily decreasing vote from.  Republicans will certainly outpace their uptick in net registrations gained in 2020.

Edgecombe is one of many mid-sized, heavily black counties in North Carolina.  They all show similar registration trends and subsequent performance.  Trump will probably clear 40% of the vote in Edgecombe and lose it by perhaps 5,000 votes depending how many of these disaffected black Democrats vote for him or choose to stay home.  That means that Edgecombe will have lost about half of its “punch” in margin from 2012.  Democrats can’t win North Carolina or Georgia losing 20% of their votes in mid-sized or rural counties packed with black voters, and the lag in black Democrat enthusiasm will make urban ballot stuffing a taller task than it was four years prior.  If this is a generational wave and Trump manages to clear 20% of the black vote, Democrats can’t hold the Midwestern states, either.

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LATINO VOTERS