Practically Every Minority Group is Moving Toward Trump: Here is Proof

Topic: Elections

In April, I profiled six key states that give election forecasters a true look at the trajectory of the 2024 election by tracking voter registration by party.  These states – Arizona, Nevada, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania – all point to a Trumpian landslide if not for the chronic and persistent condition I’ve come to describe as electile dysfunction:

·      When you have difficulty maintaining an election

·      When your election lasts for longer than four days

·      A sudden, severe, and noticeable loss of interest in voting

·      Premature inauguration, in the most severe cases

It has been no secret that President Trump is expanding his support with non-white voters to levels not seen for a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1960, and later in 1972 (Nixon lost his first bid in 1960 thanks to Chicago’s election manipulation).  Anecdotal evidence of this is easy to come by – just check out the film from any Trump rally or stand in line at one and see the faces.  The days of Romney-Ryan are long gone, and this time we are appealing to traditional Democrats and non-whites by fielding more candidates, like Trump, who fix problems free of labeling them by ideology.

Why not quantify this shift by reviewing party registration?

This will be an imperfect exercise, because in most cases, demographic data is not tracked by the state in question.  The assessments will be made on the total shift in registration, which will provide a broad-brush assessment and potential for correlation.

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BLACK VOTERS

Sample County

Edgecombe County, North Carolina

Why?

Edgecombe County, in the state’s northeast region, is the third-blackest county by percentage (57.8%) of the population in North Carolina, narrowly trailing Bertie and Hertford.  I chose it because it is the only one of that trio with more than 14,000 registered voters (35,801 at the 2020 election), so I’m working with a meaningful sample size.  Substantial population decline recorded in 2020 U.S. census.

Characteristics

·      Not won by GOP presidential nominee since 1972.

·      High point - Obama +36.2% (+9,764 margin) in 2012, county was D+59.3% (59.3% more Democrats than Republicans – 29,839 D:6,184 R out of 39,904 registered).

·      Shift 2016 – Clinton +32.0% (+7,963 margin), county was D+56.0% - 27,572 D:6,257 R out of 38,732 registered).

·      Trend 2020 - Biden +27.0% (+6,883 margin), county was D+47.2% - 23,402 D:6,502 R out of 35,801 registered).

Now what?

Edgecombe continues a Republican registration trend, now at D+39.96% - almost 20 points less Democrat than it was in 2012; Republicans have added 140 net new registrations since 2020 (and major registration surges are only just now underway for the campaign), and Democrats are down 3,087, meaning there are now just 20,315 registered Democrats in the county (9,524 less than 2012) from which to pull a steadily decreasing vote from.  Republicans will certainly outpace their uptick in net registrations gained in 2020.

Edgecombe is one of many mid-sized, heavily black counties in North Carolina.  They all show similar registration trends and subsequent performance.  Trump will probably clear 40% of the vote in Edgecombe and lose it by perhaps 5,000 votes depending how many of these disaffected black Democrats vote for him or choose to stay home.  That means that Edgecombe will have lost about half of its “punch” in margin from 2012.  Democrats can’t win North Carolina or Georgia losing 20% of their votes in mid-sized or rural counties packed with black voters, and the lag in black Democrat enthusiasm will make urban ballot stuffing a taller task than it was four years prior.  If this is a generational wave and Trump manages to clear 20% of the black vote, Democrats can’t hold the Midwestern states, either.

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LATINO VOTERS

Sample County

Osceola County, Florida

Why?

Osceola County is one of three Latino-majority counties in Florida, joining tiny Hendry County and Miami-Dade County, which is too urban and diverse for this study.  Osceola County, located just south of the Orlando metro area, appears to be on pace for 450,000 or more residents by the time of this year’s election.  Puerto Ricans make up one-third of the population and are the largest Latino group in the county, and the most Democrat-loyal major Latino group (2:1 Democrat in recent elections).

Characteristics

·      Not won by GOP presidential nominee since 2004, when George W. Bush cleared 44% with the national Latino vote, and the county was much whiter than it is today.

·      Start point - Obama +24.5% (+26,647 margin) in 2012, county was D+17.6% (17.6% more Democrats than Republicans).

·      Shift 2016 – Clinton +24.8% (+35,157 margin), county was D+24.8% - Democrats expanded registration advantage with roughly 4:1 net new voter registration increase.

·      Trend 2020 - Biden +13.8% (+23,817 margin), county was D+18.7% - Democrats net more new registrations over the GOP, but not enough to prevent decrease in registration advantage as a percentage.  The shift was 11% in favor of Trump as major Latino support tightened the county.  Notably, Osceola appears to have not been targeted for widespread election manipulation, perhaps because election riggers anticipated an organic margin of more than 45,000 for Biden that didn’t happen thanks to existing Democrat Latinos switching to Trump without switching registrations.

Now what?

Osceola continues a Republican shift, which makes a trend, and it is major.  Since the 2020 election, the county has become more than 8% less Democrat, now down to D+10.3%.  That number is made up of 3,060 net new GOP registrations, and 19,466 fewer Democrat registrations.  All 67 counties in Florida are more Republican (or less Democrat) than they were in 2020, but this is a huge number because it captures a shift with Puerto Rican voters, who are moving toward their Cuban and Venezuelan counterparts rather than in the direction of single, white post-grad women.

Trump will win Florida in a walk, and if he doesn’t win Osceola, he will be razor close.  Texas doesn’t register voters by party, making it somewhat difficult to gage Mexican-ethnicity Latinos, but all polling and recent election data and consensus opinion suggests they have moved Texas far away from the periphery of “battleground” status.  Yuma County, Arizona, (two-thirds Hispanic) has flipped to a Republican Party registration advantage since the 2020 election, with a loss of 4,167 Democrat registrations according to the latest voter registration statistics.  Now that other Latino groups are moving rightward, this will lock down Florida and Texas, flip Arizona and Nevada, and perhaps even return New Jersey and New York to sanity.  Of note, Georgia has a 10% Latino population that will factor heavily into the 2024 race.

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ASIAN VOTERS

Sample County

Middlesex County, New Jersey

Why?

Middlesex County has a very large concentration of “Asians” - which is a broad term with little specificity.  President Trump has decided to target New Jersey, so I’m introducing some analysis here.  Once I dug into the data, I found that the 26.5% Asian population is made up largely of Indian-Americans (Asian Indians, not Native Americans).  Asian Indians are among the staunchest Democrats of all “Asian” minorities, usually going 3:1 for Democrats thanks to socialistic ideology ingrained for generations.  My assessment is that if the most loyal Democrats of an entire demographic group are moving to the right, most of a more moderate persuasion should as well.  Of note, Vietnamese-Americans voted majority Trump in 2020.

Characteristics

·      Not won by GOP presidential nominee since 1988 by George H.W. Bush, with a much whiter population.  The county is now a Democrat stronghold, with no race inside 14% since 2004.

·      High point - Obama +27.6% (+83,245 margin) in 2012, county was D+23.7% (23.7% more Democrats than Republicans – 170,239 D:58,749 R out of 470,912 registered).

·      Shift 2016 – Clinton +21.3% (+70,091 margin), county was D+25.1% - 202,316 D:71,683 R out of 520,319 registered).  Trump clearly benefits from a Democrat crossover vote to lose by less than Romney, bucking the registration indicator.

·      Shift 2020 - Biden +22.0% (+82,783 margin), county was D+27.1% - 242,566 D:89,442 R out of 563,990 registered).  Automatic Voter Registration is in play, negating a relatively large Republican gain in registrations, and the final vote, among the worst in the country, negating a large Trump vote gain.

Now what?

Middlesex County, in perhaps a positive omen for other urban areas, has a solid move to the right underway, down from D+27.1% in 2020 to D+23.9% in the latest statistics.  That comes from a loss of 1,491 Democrat registrations (net) and the addition of 12,995 GOP registrations, all before the major registrations push leading up to the elections.  Not only do numbers like this underscore why Trump is playing ball in New Jersey, they confirm that I must be correct in assessing that New Jersey would be down to the wire in an organic 2024 race without major electile dysfunction.

Most importantly, these numbers suggest that one of the most substantial population groups (Indian Americans) are stalling in and perhaps even reversing their loyalty to the Democrat Party.  These are likely to impact other Asian groups, especially working-class Asians of all ethnicities - basically all but the most affluent east Asian groups.  A major rightward shift in Asians as appears on the horizon with Hispanics would make New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Virginia much more interesting, and push Dallas-Fort Worth and the Houston metro back to the right.  While many may struggle to identify Arabs as “Asians,” if this gravity applies to them, it will boost Trump bigly in the Detroit metro.

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NATIVE AMERICAN VOTERS

Sample County

Apache County, Arizona

Why?

Apache County, located in far northeastern Arizona and dominated by the Navajo Nation Reservation, is nearly three-quarters Native American.  While they are not a major demographic voting group nationally, they factor substantially in Arizona and New Mexico.  I have long maintained that neighboring Navajo County is one of the most grossly fraudulent counties in the 2020 election, and only flies under the radar thanks to the magnitude of Maricopa and Pima Counties and their respective levels of malfeasance.  Trump made a lot of progress with Natives even in fraudulent 2020 results; before that race, Natives had been voting Democrat about 6:1 on the reservations.

Characteristics

·      Not won by GOP presidential nominee since 1980, when Reagan carried it in his first run.

·      High point - Obama +34.3% (+8,897 margin) in 2012, county was D+41.3% (41.3% more Democrats than Republicans).

·      Shift 2016 – Clinton +32.0% (+8,843 margin), county was D+40.2%); county inched rightward as suggested by registration trend, large third-party vote share of 8.5% mostly impacting Clinton.

·      Shift 2020 - Biden +33.6% (+11,851 margin), county was D+35.2% - 28,531 D:10,241 R out of 51,906 registered).  Apache County takes part in big league ballot harvesting, otherwise Trump would have been within 25% and roughly 4,293 ballots closer to tipping the state.  The registration shift was influenced by a 2:1 Republican net new voter registration clip, but did not move the margin accordingly thanks to widespread cheating that nullified the largest Republican gain in the history of the county.

Now what?

The registration indicator in Apache County is majorly in favor of the GOP, or more specifically, Trump.  As of the Secretary of State’s last update, Apache County is D+31.1%, or 4 points less Democrat than it was in 2020, with a gain of 338 net new Republican registrations and a loss of 2,087 Democrat registrations.  Given the county’s ongoing population decline and a three-quarters Native American population, this means Native American Democrat loyalty is on the decline, and as a positive, these voters are signing up to vote forRepublicans like Trump.  Navajo County has moved 6.3% right from 2020, and Coconino County 3.5%.

All 15 counties in Arizona have a rightward drift in registrations, and the state is now R+5.8%, when it was R+3.1% when it was subjected to one of the worst miscarriages of justice in the history of elections, if not the worst.  Numbers like this, combined with the Latino working class’s massive shift to the right, will make it damn near impossible to keep Arizona and Nevada from Trump, and may make New Mexico surprisingly tight.

Conclusion

Almost every voting group is moving to the right.  The only two notable exceptions I can think of are single, white women and postgrads.  They will make for bluer suburban areas in states that are mostly decided, but are losing voting power thanks to the rapid transformation of the electorate around them. 

Anecdotes are great.  Stats are better.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.