Preliminary Electoral Impact of the Flooding Disaster in North Carolina

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

I realize that articles like this are sometimes chastised for being in poor taste in the immediate aftermath of a catastrophe but rest assured, both presidential campaigns are assessing the electoral impact of the flooding disaster in Appalachia and looking to figure out if they are either safe or have been given a lifeline regarding turnout in impacted areas of the region.  My mission in operating this journal is to provide you, the reader, with as much actionable information as possible and in a timely manner.

Margo Ackiss, a major America First supporter and Republican near the disaster zone in North Carolina, provided me with relevant maps and information to help make this assessment, which I shared with her, and she is passing them forward where appropriate.

The above map, from poweroutage.us, provides running estimates of how many households or facilities are without power, and that is current as of yesterday morning.  I used it to create an arbitrary map with three grades of severity, shown below:

Political Breakdown

First and foremost, let it be understood that I wish for disaster relief to be successful for all impacted regardless of political persuasion, and I wish for all impacted to have equal access to the ballot for the coming election.  Familiarize yourself with how I assess counties and their trends before proceeding.

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I count 29 impacted counties out of 100 in North Carolina.  There are:

·      25 Crimson Trend (Trump-Inclined) Counties – Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, Cherokee, Clay, Cleveland, Gaston, Graham, Haywood, Jackson, Lincoln, Macon, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Surry, Swain, Wilkes, Yancey

·      2 Republican Trend (Trump-Won) Counties – Henderson, Transylvania

·      2 Competitive Trend (Likely Harris-Won) Counties – Buncombe, Watauga

I have predicted in My 2024 North Carolina 100 County Trend Forecast, a pessimistic outlook carrying forward 2020 conditions (not necessarily likely to occur), that these counties are on pace to deliver roughly 1,108,717 votes collectively, with these five leading the way:

Buncombe – 178,142; Democrat stronghold and home to Asheville

Gaston – 128,006; Republican Trump (Crimson) stronghold west of Charlotte; likely the western portion impacted more than the suburban portion

Henderson – 75,412; Republican tier county south of Buncombe

Lincoln – 56,524; Republican Trump (Crimson) stronghold northwest of Charlotte; likely western portion

Cleveland – 55,510; Republican Trump (Crimson) stronghold in eastern flank of critical damage zone along South Carolina border

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Electorally speaking, it is to Harris’s advantage if voting in these 29 counties was completely impossible to facilitate, even if it costs her Buncombe County’s margin.  The only other county she would likely win, Watauga – home to Appalachian State University, is worth little in margin.  Those two counties stand to net her another 9,726 in margin over Biden’s 2020 numbers in my pessimistic outlook.  She is likely to gain less than 1,000 (763 in my figures) in margin in Henderson and Transylvania if they continue to inch away from Trump, though he will win both.

In the 25 Crimson counties in the operational picture, Trump stands to gain about 56,810 in margin on the low end, perhaps closer to 75,000 if mail ballot requests and Democrat enthusiasm (low) continue as they appear to be moving.

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Trump Gain – 56,810

less

Harris Gain – 10,489

Equals

Trump Net +46,321

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Trump gaining a net of 46,321 in the impacted region is enough to roughly cancel off Mecklenburg (Charlotte) or Wake (Raleigh) Counties if they manage to sprout equal margin gain as they did in 2020, which once again isn’t necessarily likely.  A Harris win in North Carolina requires subpar Trump margins in the rural areas, including the Mountains Region, which is among the Trumpiest regions in America.

Takeaways

1.        Thanks to what I just laid out, expect relief and ballot access options to be slow rolled by the Democrat governor, Roy Cooper, and the Biden-Harris regime.

2.        North Carolina stands as a critical takeaway opportunity for Harris given her weakness in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

3.        Disaster relief must run hand in hand with getting on the ball with facilitating an election in this region – and not allowing for relief focus to be only on Buncombe County, which is likely what Cooper-Harris will attempt.

4.        The ten most critical Trump counties for margin gain are:

·      Catawba

·      Lincoln

·      Burke

·      Gaston

·      Caldwell

·      Cleveland

·      Surry

·      Wilkes

·      Rutherford

·      Haywood

As a reminder, it will be too late on November 6 to complain about disenfranchisement.  Preparation and execution begin right now.  I apologize for having to write such an article in light of this tragedy.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.