The "Way Too Early" Guide to the 2026 House and Senate Midterms

The cocktail consultant class can laugh all they want, but I'm the one who got every race right last fall - not them. Ignore this assessment at your own peril.

Believe it or not, I am already taking on questions regarding the next two election cycles. I have come to realize that election season is an enduring thing that never really ends, kind of like how the NFL season proliferates itself through the calendar in unique ways:

· Regular Season runs from the beginning of September to the beginning of January

· Playoffs and Super Bowl take place in January and February

· Pro Bowl and NFL Combine take place in February and March

· NFL Draft takes place in April

· Minicamps take place in May and June

· Training Camps take place in July and August

There is never a respite from the monetary juggernaut known as the National Football League, and no shortage of people to suck up the wall-to-wall coverage. Now, compare this to election season:

· Early Voting begins as early as September, and runs through October into November

· “Election Day” is in November

· Election Counting and Challenges take place in November and December

· Election Winners are Seated by the end of January

· Candidates begin filing for future races in February

· Campaigns begin hiring staffers and consultants in Spring

· Election season in full swing for 18+ months until “Election Day” cycles back around

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With all of this succinctly laid out, then it should be clear we are at the foothills of campaign season, with election season underway. Not only have candidates stepped out of the 2026 race, but candidates are also stepping in. It’s a vicious cycle that warrants constant attention because losing the upper hand has severe consequences. Although it is far too early for me to make definitive predictions like I did when I whipped the mainstream media’s magicians and sorcerers with perfect predictions in all 56 races for electoral votes, it is not to early to give you, my valued readers, the lay of the land, and also provide myself an anchor point to base those ultimate predictions off of when the time comes in about 20 months.

Without further ado are the Top Three 2026 midterm considerations for you to chew on in February 2025:

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I. History Sets the Table

There is a reason scholars created the subject of political science. I use it to forecast presidential elections, and those who are wise and willing to listen heed its wisdom when it comes to midterm elections. Political science governs the headwinds and tailwinds of campaigning; for instance, you’ll only find one case since World War II in which a political party won the White House in three straight elections (Reagan, Reagan, Bush 41). This is because the electorate tires of the same party in power, and enough of it breaks away from its normal partisan support to back the nominee of the other party as soon as negative outlooks appear on the horizon. Much of Reagan’s working-class coalition, which still had enough in the tank in 1988 to elect Bush, broke ranks and backed Bill Clinton in 1992, sweeping the GOP out to sea.

A similar dynamic is at play in midterms, even if the President remains popular and is on his way to reelection two years after. The base that elected the president is usually passive, whereas the population that supports the opposing party is fired up and all sorts of pissed off and gets out in big numbers. Combine that base energy with the fragments of the electorate who believe divided government is the safest path for controlling partisan fervor, and you get the ingredients for the party out of the White House to pick up seats.

How solid is the precedent that the President’s party takes a beating in midterms? Since the beginning of New Deal politics (1932 presidential election), beginning with 1934 midterms, the President’s Party has:

· Lost seats in the U.S. House 20 of 23 times (87.0%)

Exceptions 1934, 1998, 2002

· Lost seats in the U.S. Senate 16 of 23 times (69.6%)

Exceptions 1934, 1962, 1970, 1982 (null), 1998 (null), 2002, 2018

· Average loss of House seats is 27 seats since 1934

· Average loss of Senate seats is 3.1 seats since 1934

· Bush ’06 lost 32 House seats

· Obama ’10 lost 63 House seats

· Obama ’14 lost 13 House seats

· Trump ’18 lost 41 House seats

· Biden ’22 lost 9 House seats

· Trump ’18 gained 2 Senate seats, suggesting partisan shift favoring Republicans in statewide races

The biggest headwinds, as demonstrated by historical precedent, are in the House. Currently, the U.S. House Republican majority is sitting at a measly 218-215, owing not only to the perception that the establishment Republican Party is way less popular than Donald Trump, but also to significant changes (and redistricting) made to election law in the past decade, which allows for rampant cheating to distort the strength of legislative majorities at federal and state levels. Read more about the impacts of down ballot cheating in 2024 here.

Clearly, just based on averages and math, it’s an uphill climb for the GOP in 2026 to hold the House. Even taking Biden’s loss of nine seats, the best incumbent midterm performance in 20 years, would put the GOP in the minority at 224-211. The average loss, since 1934, of 27 seats would put the Republicans in Congress at a 242-193 minority. More on the 2026 dynamics later.

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