This Weekend's Election Lies Debunked

Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

Reminder: Everything the mainstream media say regarding the 2024 election is part of a narrative.

Your responsibility is to debunk those narratives and ridicule your braindead opponents.  If you belong to a woke church telling you to take the “high road” in a time of national survival, find a new church and tell your pastor he is enabling the advance of evil.

Top 3 Weekend Election Lie Debunkers

I.                             How did the key states change in party registration composition in advance of Obama’s 2008 run?

The mainstream media are trying to meme Kamala Harris into the second edition of Obama’s “hope and change” 2008 run, in which the Democrats still had the support of unions and received a massive share of suburbanites and minority support, with record turnout of the latter, making 45 states either more Democrat or less Republican than they were in 2004.

Here is how the key states moved from 2004 to 2008 in party registration.

Florida

2004 D +3.6%

2004 Result Bush +5.0%

2008 D +6.1% (489k net new Democrat registrations to 167k Republican)

2008 Result Obama +2.8%

Result Shift 2004 to 2008 7.8% Democrat

-

Pennsylvania

2004 D +6.9%

2004 Result Kerry +2.5%

2008 D +14.2% (494k net new Democrat registrations to 162k Republican LOST)

2008 Result Obama +10.3%

Result Shift 2004 to 2008 7.8% Democrat

-

Iowa

2004 R +0.4%

2004 Result Bush +0.7%

2008 D +5.4% (125k net new Democrat registrations to 5k Republican)

2008 Result Obama +9.5%

Result Shift 2004 to 2008 10.2% Democrat

-

North Carolina

2004 D +12.2%

2004 Result Bush +12.4%

2008 D +13.8% (282k net new Democrat registrations to 90k Republican)

2008 Result Obama +0.3%

Result Shift 2004 to 2008 12.5% Democrat

-

Nevada

2004 R +0.4%

2004 Result Bush +2.6%

2008 D +8.3% (102k net new Democrat registrations to 4k Republican LOST)

2008 Result Obama +12.5%

Result Shift 2004 to 2008 15.1% Democrat

-

Arizona

2004 R +5.3%

2004 Result Bush +10.5%

2008 D +3.2% (108k net new Democrat registrations to 53k Republican)

2008 Result McCain +8.5%

Result Shift 2004 to 2008 2.0% Democrat

-

Today’s Data

Florida

2020 D +0.8%

2024 R +6.6%

-

Pennsylvania

2020 D +7.5%

2024 D+4.2%

-

Iowa

2020 R +1.0%

2024 R +10.0%

-

North Carolina

2020 D +5.3%

2024 D +1.3%

-

Nevada

2020 D +4.8%

2024 D +1.4%

-

Arizona

2020 R +3.0%

2024 R +6.3%

None of these “Big 6” party registration states are remotely favorable for Democrats with regard to party registration, nor do they indicate a surge for Harris, as shown below with last week’s data from…

II.                         North Carolina and the Harris Lie Debunked

Not only is North Carolina four points less Democrat than it was in 2020, when it was four points less Democrat than it was in 2016 (a huge tell that the 2020 election in North Carolina was not on the up and up and nearly stolen), but last week’s change in data also cut more than 1,000 registrations net from the Democrat lead.  I have written about the fakery of Kamalamania using fresh, weekly updated data from North Carolina before, and here is the tally since she became the presumptive nominee:

July 20, 2024

Registered Democrat: 2,400,441

Registered Republican: 2,264,487

Difference: Democrat +135,954

August 10, 2024

Registered Democrat: 2,402,172

Registered Republican: 2,269,714

Difference: Democrat +132,458

The net change in party registration in North Carolina, which Harris intends to make a play for, has been 3,496 in favor of the GOP, a progression of the trend in progress since Obama walked off the stage at his first inauguration.  The input since Harris’s emergence to the net total has been 5,227 net new Republican registrations to 1,731 Democrat, or a ratio of 3:1.

Data from all the other “Big 6” states, and even others like New Mexico, show the same trajectory.  Kamalamania does not resemble Obamamania in any way.

III.                      Marquette Carrying Water and Ignoring History

Marquette, another regime-favored pollster, has dropped the ball yet again – or have they?  They are doing exactly as ordered in suggesting there is an eight-point national popular vote gap in favor of Harris, which would generate a map like this, making Florida and Texas vulnerable for flips:

What is most curious about their polling is that despite the national bludgeoning, a margin wider than Obama’s over McCain in 2008, is that Trump is holding to a one-point lead in Wisconsin, which went to Obama by almost 14 points in his 2008 blowout.

Pepperidge Farm and Captain K remember how Wisconsin plays in history.  Follow along:

Wisconsin has been won by 25 GOP presidential nominees since the party’s first presidential campaign in 1856:

·      20 of 25 times, that nominee won the Electoral College, including three times he lost the popular vote.  The most recent was Donald Trump in 2016 (not counting the stolen election of 2020), with Wisconsin 2.9% right of the national popular vote margin, not 9% as the Marquette poll suggests.

·      The last GOP presidential nominee to win Wisconsin and lose the Electoral College was Richard Nixon in 1960, an election likely decided for Kennedy thanks to electoral fraud in Illinois and Texas.

·      Throwing out 1960, we must go to 1948 to find the last clear case of Wisconsin going to the GOP nominee and the election going to the Democrat, with a gap of 9.3% - the most recent result resembling the Marquette poll.

·      Republican nominees won Wisconsin and lost the popular vote in 1876 (Electoral College win), 1884, 1888 (Electoral College win), and 1916.  In each instance, the GOP nominee also carried Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

In summary, there is no modern precedent for Wisconsin going to Trump and him losing the popular vote by 8 points.  We must go back to 1948 to find a single instance of it, and it came in a Harry Truman upset win.  The other instances noted above occurred before the New Deal, which realigned the working class states in the Industrial and Upper Midwest to provide much more favorable outcomes to Democrats and the Franklin Roosevelt coalition.

Stop falling for, spreading, and fretting about lies!

---

Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.