Three Key Reasons Michigan Is Easily the Toughest of the Big 3 Blue Collar States for Trump

Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

While seven states are likely to decide the 2024 Presidential quasi-election, the blue-collar states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan that put Donald Trump over the top in 2016 (and should have kept him there in 2020) are collectively referred to in election-speak as the “Big 3.”  Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, is the biggest, and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) is the smallest but most winnable of the trio for a variety of factors.

Michigan, the middle sibling worth 15 electoral votes, will be the hardest of the three for Trump to secure by far, and arriving at this conclusion is about as simple of an exercise as it is for me to tell you that Idaho is going to vote for Trump this year.  Before you get too deep in this article, take a look at The Michigan Files repository I set up earlier this month, which has all the data you can fit between your ears and plenty of the supporting documentation behind my assessment.

Those who can understand coalition shifts, which in the case of Michigan means hundreds of thousands of white non-college voters switching from Obama to Trump in a four-year span, recognize the rip current working against the Democrats organically for over a decade.  Michigan managed to do pull this trend from Obama’s high point in 2008:

·      Obama ’08 - +16.4%, +823,275 votes

·      Obama ’12 - +9.5%, +449,314 votes (shift 6.9% Republican)

·      Trump ’16 - +0.2%, +10,704 votes (shift 9.7% Republican, trend 16.6% Republican in two cycles)

Trump pulled off that flip with a gain of just 164,287 net new votes over Romney’s total, and benefitted from a second straight massive Democrat die-off, all before I bring us to the first of three points that justifies why Michigan is the worst off of the Big 3:

I.                             Inherent Election Corruption

In 2020, Trump didn’t just match his increase over Romney – he obliterated it, gaining 370,029 votes over his own previous vote total, besting his own increase from 2016 2.25 times over.  In 2016, Clinton, due to the death of the white, blue-collar Democrat demographic, was 598,841 votes below Obama’s high-water mark just eight years later, and Trump’s massive 2020 gain in a state losing Electoral College strength spelled a continuation of the trend laid out above.  In fact, I had the number at 8.5% Trump, which when thrown off by roughly 11.1%, accounts for an estimate of 576,443 likely fictious or otherwise fraudulent Biden votes.

The media want you to forget about the blatant obfuscation of the counting process at Detroit’s TCF Center, and lest you think the problem is contained that that festering cesspool, look across the state to Muskegon County where a massive voter registration fraud ring was busted, although the useless law enforcement brass in Michigan sat on the info for years so as not to inhibit Biden’s coronation.  If it’s happening in a mid-sized county like Muskegon, what should we think about Wayne, Oakland, Washtenaw, Macomb, Kent, Ottawa, and other significant counties being used to prop up a dying political coalition?

Michigan, a state full of funny accents, potholed roads, rusted factories, and beautiful lakeshore, is often overlooked due to the sheer scale of corruption just down the road in Chicago, and on the coasts on both sides of the Great Lake States in places like New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles.  Rest assured, however, that Michigan is a Darkhorse Hall of Fame candidate for pound-for-pound political corruption, and it extends with ease into their electoral equation in a systemic fashion…