Vindicated: Captain K's 2024 Predictions Review

Topic: 2024 Election Forecasts

Nov 07, 2024

This post is for not only my supporters, but my haters, and also happens to be my first post since the great Donald Trump 2024 election victory. Now that all states (as well as separate electoral votes awarded by district) have been called, let it be known I was a perfect 56 out of 56, with my call of 312 electoral votes for Trump and 226 for Harris standing the test of time and the capacity of humans to manipulate election results.

You can read my now famous post predicting this election outcome here.

Note: all analysis of margins and uncertified results is reflective of race statuses on the morning of November 7, 2024.

Safe Electoral Votes

Precision also matters, so here is my review of calls for “safe” electoral votes – those I expected to be decided by 8 or more points in favor of either candidate:

Safe Calls Correct: 43/43

Minimum Margins Correct: 32/43

Missed Minimum Margins:

California: off by 2.8 to the left (Trump overperformance) – subject to change
Illinois: off by 1.6 to the left (Trump overperformance) – subject to change
New Jersey: off by 3.0 to the left (Trump overperformance) – subject to change
Massachusetts: off by 5.2 to the left (Trump overperformance) – subject to change
Maryland: off by 7.0 to the left (Trump overperformance) – subject to change
Connecticut: off by 0.3 to the left (Trump overperformance) – subject to change
Oklahoma: off by 1.7 to the right (Trump underperformance) – subject to change
Utah: off by 4.5 to the right (Trump underperformance) – subject to change
Maine 2^nd CD: off by 2.7 to the right (Trump underperformance) – subject to change
Nebraska 1^st CD: off by 4.1 to the right (Trump underperformance) – subject to change
Nebraska 3^rd CD: off by 1.2 to the right (Trump underperformance) – subject to change

Notable Calls:

New York: Harris +11.5
Colorado: Harris +11.4
Missouri: Trump +18.5
Kentucky: Trump +30.7
Oregon: Harris +12.4
Arkansas: Trump +30.7
Kansas: Trump +16.6
Montana: Trump +20.1
Rhode Island: Harris +13.5
South Dakota: Trump +29.2

“Leaners”

Here is a review of my calls for the “leaners” – states likely for one candidate or the other, but by a margin of less than 8 points:

Leaner Calls Correct: 6/6

Closest Margin Call: Minnesota (subject to change)
Biggest Margin Miss: Maine Statewide (subject to change)
Average Margin Miss: 2.1 (subject to change)

Seven Decisive States

Finally, here is how it went for the seven decisive states:

Seven Decisive States Calls Correct: 7/7

Closest Margin Call: Pennsylvania (subject to change) – note, at the time of this writing, Arizona is a closer call, but it is likely to be won at a margin that will render Pennsylvania my closest call
Biggest Margin Miss: Georgia (subject to change pending Arizona result)
Average Margin Miss: 1.3 (subject to change)

Now you have my receipts. I have been preaching voter registration by party analysis over polls for four years now. Thank you for taking this look under the hood, and stay tuned as we seek to transform elections to work for the people in a new Trump administration. It is a surreal thing to have been completely vindicated not only for my analytical methodology, but for my opinion of the fairness of the 2020 presidential quasi-election, which now faces increased scrutiny after this year’s result.

Please note that I believe final margins for President Trump in the decisive states are likely substantially altered by the usual ballot stuffing in key areas that has altered key Senate and House races, but fell short of preventing Trump from carrying their respective electoral votes. My registration modeling would have likely been much more accurate to the margin in a clean election.

Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.