Virginia - 2024 Election Compendium

Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

Virginia 2024 Presidential Election Review

Author’s Note: All 2024 Election Reviews can be found here.

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Outcome

Harris +5.8% (+260,310)

My Prediction

Harris +3.0%

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Preface

Around the time Joe Biden dropped out of the race, prognosticators were eyeballing the Old Dominion as a potential Trump flip. I remained somewhat bearish about that idea, primarily because I count vote margins, not polling percentages. Virginia resembles Minnesota in that it is largely a geographically red state dominated by a single metropolitan area. In the case of Virginia, I’m referring to NoVA – Northern Virginia – the ten counties and independent cities that make up the state’s dominant blue bubble responsible for flipping the state in 2008 and keeping it blue in the four elections since. Those ten are:

· Alexandria (City)

· Arlington County

· Fairfax (City)

· Fairfax County

· Falls Church (City)

· Loudoun County

· Manassas (City)

· Manassas Park (City)

· Prince William County

· Stafford County

NoVA has a lot of things that make it a political catastrophe for Republican candidates. Some counties or cities, such as Fairfax County, have a heavy urban minority population that has always been an obstacle; however, since the GOP became more populist-aligned with the Tea Party, the federal worker base that benefits financially from living in a moderate state has swung hard to the left, producing a Southern Maryland effect in what was once a reliably Republican State, with no misses from 1968 through 2004. When Virginia cast its electoral votes for a Republican for the final time in 2004 for George W. Bush, Bush lost NoVA by just 56,523. Since then:

• 2008 -230,574

• 2012 -225,407

• 2016 -391,620

• 2020 -523,734

Virginia does not register its voters by party, and thanks to the uniqueness of the Washington, D.C., metro, there is no real comp for reading Virginia like there is for Georgia. Portions of the state, like those in the far southwest or in the Shenandoah Valley bordering Kentucky and West Virginia, respectively, are extremely Trumpy, and trend like their counterpart counties in those states do. Other areas, such as in the heavily black south-central portion, tend to move like their counterpart counties across the state line in North Carolina.

My 3% call for Harris, which turned out to be low by 2.8% (perhaps artificially), factored in hard Trump trends in the west and improvement in minority-heavy areas in the heart of the state. It also hinged upon a Trump improvement (smaller margin of defeat) in NoVA, and on my prediction that Trump would carry North Carolina by 5.1%. At no point did I have Virginia as a likely Trump flip, although it did come to reside in the group of states including New Mexico and Minnesota, that would be the first group to flip once all battlegrounds (including New Hampshire) fell in a national landslide.

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Analysis

· 121 of 133 counties/independent cities (91.0%) shifted more Republican from 2020, meaning those 121 were either won by a greater percentage margin, or lost by less of one. The most important shift was that found in NoVA, which included an 8.9% shift right in Loudoun County, 7.2% shift right in Fairfax County, and a 9.1% shift right in Prince William County.

· Trump ate up 105,349 of Biden’s 2020 margin in NoVA, which is the primary reason the state pulled within six points. See graphic below for the individual shifts in the NoVA Ten:

· I suggested Trump, to have a shot at tipping Virginia, would need to get the losing margin in NoVA down as close to 400,000 as possible, which almost happened, and then run up the score in the remaining 123 counties/independent cities at a level far surpassing his 2016 margin of 179,590. Trump fell short of his 2016 RoVA (Rest of Virginia) margin by 21,515, though his performance spanning both regions was enough to cut the Democrat presidential margin by 190,828:

· Trump flipped Lynchburg (independent city, won by Trump in 2016), Prince Edward County (first GOP presidential win since 2000), and Surry County (first GOP presidential win since 1972).

· Referencing the above map – Harris added ballots to Biden’s totals in just 33 counties/independent cities, or 24.8% of all counties/independent cities. She managed to gain ballots, however, in 8 of 9 (88.9%) counties/independent cities that fit entirely within Virginia’s 7^th Congressional District (VA-7).

· The U.S. House race in VA-7, previously ripped off by Democrat Abigail Spanberger (who wishes to become Virginia’s next governor) in 2020, was won (or “won”) by Eugene Vindman, brother of dirtbag and media darling Alexander Vindman, who betrayed his oath of office to conspire against President Trump on behalf of his puppet masters and the Ukraine lobby. Outside of this district, Harris only gained in roughly one out of five counties over Biden’s totals. Here are the gains, excepting the partial precincts of Albemarle and Prince William Counties:

· Given that Harris lost 3.2% of Biden’s 2020 ballot count statewide, here is what those county totals would have looked like with the same percentage decrease reflected in them: