As Election 2024 bears down upon us, you’ve undoubtedly heard the term Black Swan flung around. An unfortunate reality of living in the post-2020 world is that we have come to expect government-inflicted bullshit that has no place in a free society, like ours was founded to be. You remember this drill – while many of your friends who still won’t fess up today were diving under their beds to hide from a virus that only infects you while you are walking into a restaurant or boarding an aircraft, you were watching local small business die on the vine because the nations of the world decided the big, bad mean Tweeter had to go, and your feckless local leaders and businesses complied because they didn’t want to suffer the left-wing commentariat ripping them online, as if they would have had the power to malign and subsequently cancel thousands of like-minded professing patriots who could have chosen to stand together.
If you’re like me, you remember taking vicious hits from people who questioned the hardness of your heart, and how you could dare let grandmas die because you wanted to go out to eat or take your children to a play date or ballgame. To them, nothing was more vital than not dying from COVID-19, even if you died from it while being sandwiched between semitrucks while riding a crotch rocket – even if it meant starvation related to economic decline, a spike in mental disease and depression that would lead to excess deaths from suicide, or the loss of several years’ worth of normalcy and childhood development critical for making functioning, well-adjusted adults. That was the Black Swan event of 2020, and it went from Corona beer-related memes to cancelled sports seasons to contrived national emergency all in the span of about six weeks. You remember where you were when the world shut down. I was in Madison, Wisconsin, trying to get home from a sales trip when the Wuhan Flu pierced the collective national consciousness.
What is a Black Swan event, you ask?
A black swan event, a phrase commonly used in the world of finance, is an extremely negative event or occurrence that is impossibly difficult to predict. In other words, black swan events are events that are unexpected and unknowable. The term was popularized by former Wall Street trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who wrote about the concept in his 2001 book Fooled by Randomness (source linked above).
Lately, you’ve heard the still-brilliant Ron Paul and Lt. General (Ret.) Michael Flynn publicly warn of an inevitable Black Swan event taking America hostage in the very near future, perhaps within weeks of this writing. My friends Master Sergeant (Ret.) Jack Dona and Lt. Colonel (Ret.) Steve Murray are also vocal about this topic, though their expectations for the severity, execution, and longevity of said event vary. The rest of this article will be based around my Ten Bold Predictions for 2024, which I published on January 1. I have already nailed two of these predictions and need only time as my ally to nail two others in the process of being proven correct. I highly recommend you familiarize yourself with my predictions before proceeding from here.
I’ll shoot straight – No, I do not believe Donald J. Trump will simply waltz into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue on January 20, 2025, with no serious effort to stop what would constitute an inevitable change of power in any timeframe prior to 2020.
So, how would a 2024 Black Swan designed to impact the U.S. General Election, or offer up a narrative for Congress to discard its results, look in light of how I believe 2024 will shake out as guided by my predictions?
Follow along:
I. Trump Challengers are Out
My third prediction, “GOP Primary Hindenburg,” is completely fulfilled. Ron DeSantis dropped out exactly when I thought he would, and Nikki Haley was propped up as the next option, treading water hoping for the two other contingencies to play out. The plan to avoid Trump via diplomatic means (beating him in the GOP primary) failed.
II. Cases Against Trump are Failing
Jack Smith’s crusade against Trump is losing steam and the little public support it had, barely getting any coverage in the mainstream press anymore, and is being delayed and pushed away to the extreme likelihood nothing can come to fruition until after November 5. Other cases are failing to land any impact whatsoever other than to make Trump a martyr and push people who may never again back a Republican candidate in his direction for one special occasion. This prediction, “All Judicial Persecution Against Trump Will Fail,” is in process of being nailed and was the bedrock upon which the hopes of the Trump challenges in the previous point laid their hopes for the nomination.
III. Trump Will Be on the Ballots
My fifth prediction, “The U.S. Supreme Court will Invalidate All Moves to Remove Trump from Ballots,” has come to fruition and was delightfully fulfilled when Jena Griswold had her plans for disenfranchising more than a million Coloradans slammed right back in her face by a 9-0 vote. The plan to make a path to 270 electoral votes impossible for Trump, thereby pressuring the GOP to play party games to select its own nominee, failed bigly.
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